“五一”假期出行点评：量增价稳，供需关系加速改善

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - Travel demand exceeded market expectations during the May Day holiday, with ticket prices remaining stable compared to the same period last year. The Ministry of Transport estimated that 1.467 billion people would travel across regions, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Among these, air travel reached 11.143 million passengers, up 11.8% year-on-year, and 24.2% compared to 2019. The average ticket price during the holiday was approximately 943 yuan, slightly higher than last year (+0.7%) [4] - The inbound tourism sector is expected to become a new growth point, with the National Immigration Administration predicting an average of 2.15 million inbound and outbound travelers per day during the holiday, a year-on-year increase of 27%. Inbound travel orders increased by 130% year-on-year, with significant growth in cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Yiwu [4] - The aviation sector's performance in Q1 was under pressure due to declining ticket prices and cost pressures, despite growing demand. However, the supply-demand relationship is expected to improve, stabilizing ticket prices as travel volume continues to rise, supported by favorable external conditions such as declining oil prices and stable exchange rates [4] Summary by Sections - Travel Demand and Pricing: The travel demand during the May Day holiday was higher than expected, with stable ticket prices compared to last year. The average ticket price was around 943 yuan, showing a slight increase [4] - Inbound Tourism Growth: The inbound tourism sector is projected to grow, with significant increases in inbound travel orders and favorable government policies promoting tourism [4] - Q1 Performance and Future Outlook: The aviation sector faced challenges in Q1, but the outlook for Q2 is positive due to improving supply-demand dynamics and external market conditions [4]