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尿素早评:出口传言冲击市场-20250506
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-05-06 06:54

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - On April 30, market rumors of possible urea export liberalization led to a significant gap - up in the futures market, with intraday gains exceeding 7%. During the May Day holiday, urea spot prices showed a slight increase. Considering the uncertainty of export policy in the short - term, two scenarios are considered. If export is confirmed to be liberalized, domestic urea prices may rise above 2000 yuan/ton due to large domestic - foreign price differentials and considerable export profits. If export remains restricted, after previous rounds of false export speculations, the price increase will likely be reversed in the short - term, but with domestic peak - season expectations, the price drop will stimulate demand, and there is support at the 1700 yuan/ton level. The strategy is to let long - position holders realize some profits and keep an eye on export policy trends [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On April 30, UR01 closed at 1778 yuan/ton (up 3.86% from April 29), UR05 at 1850 yuan/ton (up 5.24%), UR09 at 1857 yuan/ton (up 7.03%), and the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 opened at 1770 yuan/ton, with a high of 1771 yuan/ton, a low of 1725 yuan/ton, and closed at 1735 yuan/ton [1] - Spot Prices: Domestic spot prices in different regions had varying degrees of increase on April 30 compared to April 29. For example, in Shanxi, it was 1770 yuan/ton (up 4.12%), in Henan 1860 yuan/ton (up 2.20%), and in Shandong 1869 yuan/ton (up 5.24%) [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 19 yuan/ton on April 30, down 43 yuan/ton from April 29. The 01 - 05 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi, and other regions remained unchanged on April 30 compared to April 29 [1] - Downstream: The prices of compound fertilizers (45%S) and melamine in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, and other regions remained unchanged on April 30 compared to April 29 [1] Trading Strategy - Long - position holders are advised to realize some profits and continue to monitor the direction of export policies [1]