Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate market is gradually stabilizing, and the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide has increased year - on - year. In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the new order index was 49.2%, a 2.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand [4][39]. - Global refined copper supply and consumption are both weak, with an overall slight surplus in copper supply and demand. Chinese copper smelters' TC and RC continue to decline significantly, and Chinese refined copper production keeps growing with an expanding growth rate recently. The spread between refined and scrap copper is gradually narrowing. Copper product output decreased month - on - month but continued to grow year - on - year. The terminal consumption market continued the positive trend [6][39]. - Shanghai copper inventory has decreased significantly. LME copper inventory has decreased slightly, while COMEX copper inventory has increased significantly. Overall, copper prices may show a volatile trend [7][39]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In early April, affected by US tariff policies, the price of the main Shanghai copper futures contract dropped significantly. As uncertainties were gradually released, the copper price rebounded and entered a volatile trend at the end of the month. The price range was about 71,140 - 78,480 yuan/ton. The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main Shanghai copper futures contract, with an operating range of about 8,105 - 9,479 US dollars/ton [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Environment 2.1 Real - estate Data Continued to Stabilize - From January to March, national real - estate development investment was 1.9904 trillion yuan, a 9.9% year - on - year decrease; residential investment was 1.5133 trillion yuan, a 9.0% decrease. Real - estate development enterprises' housing construction area, new construction area, completion area, new commercial housing sales area, and sales volume all showed varying degrees of decline, but the decline in sales area and volume narrowed [12][14]. 2.2 The Total Profit of Industrial Enterprises above the Designated Size Nationwide Increased Year - on - Year - From January to March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 1.50936 trillion yuan, a 0.8% year - on - year increase. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises' profit decreased by 1.4%, joint - stock enterprises' profit increased by 0.1%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit increased by 2.8%, and private enterprises' profit decreased by 0.3%. Profits in different industries showed different trends [18][19]. 3. Supply Side 3.1 Rapid Growth in Refined Copper Production - In February 2025, global primary refined copper production was 1,822 thousand tons, recycled refined copper production was 378 thousand tons, and the total supply was 2,200 thousand tons, while consumption was 2,139 thousand tons, with an increase of 61 thousand tons. As of March 2025, monthly refined copper production was 1.248 million tons, an increase of 0.006 million tons from the previous month and an 8.6% year - on - year increase. As of April 29, 2025, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumaom was 78,090 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 71,700 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap spread of - 780 yuan/ton [23]. 4. Demand Side 4.1 Copper Product Output Increased Year - on - Year - In March 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.1252 million tons, showing year - on - year growth. The monthly investment in power grid construction was 95.6 billion yuan, a 24.8% year - on - year increase [31]. 5. Inventory Side 5.1 Shanghai Copper Inventory Decreased Significantly - As of April 30, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 89,307 tons, a decrease of 27,446 tons from the previous week. As of April 28, 2025, LME copper inventory was 202,800 tons, a decrease of 650 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 35.26%. As of April 29, 2025, COMEX copper inventory was 137,759 tons, an increase of 2,615 tons from the previous trading day. As of April 28, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 95,800 tons, a decrease of 15,400 tons from the previous week [35]. 6. Outlook 6.1 Analysis of Price Trend Factors - Factors affecting copper prices include Chinese economic policies (real - estate market stabilization, industrial enterprise profit growth), supply (slight surplus of global refined copper, growing copper production), demand (accelerated power grid investment, year - on - year growth of copper product output), and inventory (significant decrease in Shanghai copper inventory) [38]. 6.2 Outlook - The real - estate market continued to stabilize, and the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased year - on - year. Manufacturing market demand declined. Global refined copper supply and consumption were weak, with a slight surplus. Chinese refined copper production continued to grow, and the refined - scrap copper spread gradually narrowed. Copper product output decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The terminal consumption market continued to improve. Shanghai copper inventory decreased, LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and COMEX copper inventory increased significantly. Overall, copper prices may show a volatile trend [39].
精炼铜产量增长明显，沪铜或震荡运行
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-05-06 07:06