2025年4月PMI数据点评：4月官方制造业PMI指数较大幅度下行，后期扩内需将成为主要支撑点

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In April 2025, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from March, marking the largest decline in nearly two years[2][3] - The decline is attributed to two main factors: a significant change in the external environment due to increased tariffs from the U.S. and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease in manufacturing activity compared to March[3] - New export orders index fell sharply by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest level in 28 months, primarily due to high tariffs impacting orders from the U.S.[4] Economic Indicators - The production index for April was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weakened market demand[4] - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.0%, while the factory price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.3%, indicating significant contraction in both indices[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point decline, showcasing resilience amid market challenges[5][6] Future Outlook - The construction PMI for April was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, influenced by a slowdown in real estate investment; however, civil engineering activity index rose to 60.9%, indicating potential for increased infrastructure investment[6] - The central government's recent policy directives emphasize stronger counter-cyclical measures and proactive macroeconomic policies, suggesting a focus on boosting domestic demand and infrastructure investment[7] - It is anticipated that the manufacturing PMI may remain in contraction territory in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to the implementation of growth-stimulating policies[7]