中辉有色观点-20250506

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided in the reports. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each metal variety, such as "high - level oscillation" for gold, "wide - range adjustment" for silver, "buy on dips" for copper, etc. [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The reports analyze multiple metals including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate. The core views are based on factors like economic data, trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels. For example, gold is supported by long - term de - dollarization and global asset re - allocation, while copper is affected by global supply shortages and trade policies. [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Metal Variety Gold - Core View: High - level oscillation. Long - term strategic allocation value persists due to international order disruption and de - dollarization. [1] - Price Range: [766 - 800] [1] - Market Performance: Last week, the outer - market gold declined continuously, but yesterday it basically recovered the previous losses. [2] - Basic Logic: US economic recession risk rises as the Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3% due to surging imports and weak consumption. However, strong non - farm payroll data reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged as trade negotiations are still uncertain, and global asset re - allocation and fiscal - monetary easing will support gold. [2] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term sentiment is slack, but can participate after stabilization. Long - term logic remains intact. [3] Silver - Core View: Wide - range adjustment. It is affected by gold and base metals, and currently in a large oscillation range. [1] - Price Range: [8100 - 8380] [1] - Strategy Recommendation: Treat it with an oscillation mindset within the current range. [3] Copper - Core View: Buy on dips. The copper concentrate shortage persists, and domestic inventory is decreasing. Be vigilant against soft squeeze - out risks. [1] - Price Range: SHFE copper [77000, 78500]; LME copper [9000, 9500] dollars/ton [1][5] - Market Performance: During the May Day holiday, LME copper rebounded in a V - shape, with an overall increase of 0.3%. [4] - Industrial Logic: Overseas copper mine supply is disrupted, and processing fees are at new lows. Domestic electrolytic copper production is increasing year - on - year but decreasing month - on - month. Global copper inventory is flowing to the US, and domestic inventory is decreasing, with a risk of soft squeeze - out. [4] - Strategy Recommendation: With the easing of macro - sentiment, buy on dips near the 77,000 mark. Long - term optimism remains due to the global copper shortage. [5] Zinc - Core View: Sell on rebounds. Zinc supply is increasing while demand is weak in the long - term. [1] - Price Range: SHFE zinc [22300, 22900]; LME zinc [2580, 2680] dollars/ton [1][7] - Market Performance: During the May Day holiday, LME zinc first declined and then rebounded, with an overall decline of 0.7%. [6] - Industrial Logic: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to increase, and domestic smelter raw material supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weakening as the peak season ends, and the steel market is sluggish. [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Sell on rebounds in the short - term. Seize short - selling opportunities in the long - term. [7] Aluminum - Core View: Under pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation after the holiday, and downstream processing enterprises' operating rates are declining. [1] - Price Range: [19500 - 20100] [1] - Market Performance: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, while alumina is stabilizing at a low level. [8] - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas tariff policy impact is weakening. Domestic inventory is decreasing, but downstream demand is weakening. For alumina, supply - demand surplus is temporarily alleviated, and inventory is at a high level. [9] - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly buy on dips for SHFE aluminum, focusing on the terminal peak - season performance. Alumina is expected to be relatively weak. [9] Nickel - Core View: Under pressure. Indonesian nickel ore cost increases support the price, but domestic inventory is high, and stainless steel inventory is also at a high level. [1] - Price Range: [120000 - 127000] [11] - Market Performance: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel rebounds and then declines. [10] - Industrial Logic: Overseas macro - environment impact is weakening. Indonesian nickel ore cost increases support the price, but domestic refined nickel production is high, and inventory is at a high level. Stainless steel inventory reduction faces resistance, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. [11] - Strategy Recommendation: Temporarily wait and see, focusing on inventory changes. [11] Lithium Carbonate - Core View: Bearish in May. Supply - demand remains loose, inventory is accumulating, and ore prices are declining. [1] - Price Range: [65000, 66500] [1] - Market Performance: The main contract LC2507 opened slightly lower, rose and then fell, hitting a new low. [12] - Industrial Logic: In May, supply is sufficient as salt - lake lithium production enters the peak season, and overseas lithium ore shipments increase. Demand shows no seasonal increase, and tariff policies affect exports. Costs are decreasing as ore prices approach last year's lows. [13] - Strategy Recommendation: Weak operation, sell on rebounds. [13]