纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总-20250506

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soda ash market, the industry conference promotes production - cut and price - support plans. Although short - term factory inventory is expected to decrease and the mid - stream may stop reducing inventory, continuous price increases are difficult. The long - term bearish trend remains, but caution is needed before the positive feedback atmosphere ends. Traders are advised to pay attention to new order transaction prices and the implementation of maintenance and price - support plans, and short - term short - covering and then short - selling at high prices are recommended after the upward sentiment calms down [8][9]. - For the glass market, from a valuation perspective, it has entered an ideal layout range, but it is necessary to wait for the market sentiment to improve. A long - position strategy for far - month contracts is recommended, and subsequent attention should be paid to production line changes, the digestion progress of low - price spot and futures sources, and the price - volume sentiment changes of spot in major production areas [173]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Market Review - Supply: The total weekly production is 75.51 million tons, with heavy - soda production at 41.55 million tons and light - soda production at 33.96 million tons. The import volume is 0.07 million tons, and the export volume is 4.2 million tons. There are production - cut and maintenance plans in the industry, and potential incremental production awaits the full - capacity operation of Jiangsu Debang and the subsequent commissioning of Lianyungang Alkali Plant [8]. - Demand: The heavy - soda consumption is 34.27 million tons, and the light - soda apparent demand is 30.87 million tons. The apparent demand for soda ash is 77.54 million tons. The market's expectation for terminal demand is weak, but the short - term apparent demand may be boosted by the positive feedback between futures and spot [8]. - Inventory: The alkali factory inventory is 169.1 million tons, and the social inventory is 33.85 million tons. With the positive feedback and subsequent production - cut expectations, short - term factory inventory is expected to decrease, while mid - stream inventory may stop falling and start to rise [8]. - Valuation: The ammonia - soda process cost is 1327 yuan, and the profit is 83 yuan. The combined - soda process cost is 1170 yuan, and the profit is 140 yuan. The price difference between heavy and light soda in Central China is 40 yuan, and the basis of the market price in Shahe is 20 yuan [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - Production: The report provides monthly production data of soda ash from 2020 to 2025 [15]. - Imports and Exports: The current import volume is 0.32 million tons, and the export volume is 19.43 million tons. Compared with the previous month, imports decreased by 0.23 million tons, and exports increased by 0.02 million tons. Compared with the same period last year, imports decreased by 21.23 million tons, and exports increased by 9.45 million tons [16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - Spot - Futures Price Comparison: It shows the price trends of soda ash futures price index, Shahe area heavy - soda market price, Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, and glass futures price index from 2020 to 2025 [24][25][26][27]. - Soda Ash Contract Basis: Presents the basis trends of Shahe heavy - soda 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [29][31][32]. - Soda Ash Contract Inter - period Spread: Displays the spread trends of soda ash 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [34][35][36]. - Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread: Shows the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, and 05 contracts and the spot spread of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate glass - soda ash from 2021 to 2026 [38][39][40][42]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - Shahe Region: The current market price of heavy - soda in Shahe is 1312 yuan, a decrease of 40 yuan compared with last week and 938 yuan compared with last year [47]. - Light and Heavy Soda Regional Prices: The prices of heavy and light soda in different regions such as North China, East China, and Central China are provided, with most prices remaining stable [51]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - Start - up and Shutdown: Some enterprises are currently under maintenance or reducing load, and some have planned maintenance in May [88]. - Start - up Rate: The current domestic soda ash start - up rate is 89.44%, with a weekly production of 75.51 million tons, heavy - soda production of 41.55 million tons, and light - soda production of 33.96 million tons [89]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit trends of ammonia - soda and combined - soda processes from 2020 to 2025 are presented, as well as the price trends of related products such as synthetic ammonia, limestone, and caustic soda [100][102][104][106][112][122][126]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - Heavy - Soda Demand: It shows the daily melting volume of photovoltaic and float glass, the daily consumption of heavy - soda, and the weekly demand from 2020 to 2025 [137][139][140][141]. - Weekly Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio: Presents the weekly consumption and production - sales ratio of light and heavy soda from 2020 to 2025 [143]. - Photovoltaic Glass Price: Displays the market average prices of 3.2mm and 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass from 2021 to 2025 [146][147]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - Overall Inventory: The current soda ash enterprise inventory is 169.1 million tons, with light - soda enterprise inventory at 85.05 million tons and heavy - soda enterprise inventory at 84.05 million tons [151]. - Regional Inventory: Shows the inventory trends of soda ash in different regions such as North China, Central China, and East China from 2020 to 2025 [159][160][162]. 3.8 Glass Market Review - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass is 157,175 tons, and the weekly production is 110.02 million tons. There are cold - repair and production - start plans for some production lines [171]. - Demand: The apparent consumption is 108.47 million tons. Market sentiment suppresses the apparent demand, but the mid - and downstream purchase appropriately at low prices [171]. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 327.37 million tons, and short - term inventory is expected to increase slightly due to demand suppression [171]. - Valuation: The cost and profit of natural - gas, coal - gas, and petroleum - coke production lines are provided. Low - cost production capacity still has profits, but most production capacity is in the red [171]. 3.9 Glass Monthly Supply and Demand - Production: Displays the monthly production data of flat glass from 2020 to 2025 [178]. - Imports and Exports: Presents the monthly import and export data of float glass from 2020 to 2025 [179][183]. 3.10 Glass Basis and Spread - Spot - Futures Price Comparison: Shows the price trends of soda ash futures price index, Shahe area heavy - soda market price, Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, and glass futures price index from 2020 to 2025 [187][188][189][190]. - Glass Contract Basis: Presents the basis trends of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [192][193][194]. - Glass Contract Inter - period Spread: Displays the spread trends of glass 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 contracts from 2009 to 2026 [196][197][198]. - Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread: Shows the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, and 05 contracts and the spot spread of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate glass - soda ash from 2021 to 2026 [201][202][203][205]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - Float Glass 5mm Regional Price: Provides the price information of 5mm float glass in different regions such as Shahe, North China, and East China, with some prices showing slight fluctuations [210]. - Float Glass 5mm Large - Plate Price: Displays the price trends of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan 5mm glass large - plate tax - included price, and South China 5mm glass large - plate tax - included price from 2020 to 2025 [225]. 3.12 Glass Supply No relevant content provided for the supply part after "05 Glass Supply".