海外大幅动荡，有色金属节后或维持震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets have been highly volatile, and non - ferrous metals may maintain a volatile trend after the holiday [1] - The overall demand for non - ferrous metals is affected by factors such as trade wars and global economic slowdown, and the upward space for prices is limited [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - Market Review: During the domestic holiday, copper prices fluctuated significantly and declined slightly. After filling the downward gap, it returned to a volatile state [3] - Fundamentals: The spot market of copper concentrates remains sluggish, TC continues to decline, and the pressure on smelters is increasing. The supply - demand fundamentals are still relatively tight, with significant inventory build - up in New York but significant inventory reduction in China and a decrease in LME inventory [3] - Price Outlook: After the holiday, Shanghai copper may maintain a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to conduct cautious trading within the range of 74,500 - 78,500 [3] 3.2 Aluminum - Market Review: The price continued to decline after filling the downward gap and then maintained a volatile state [3] - Fundamentals: The supply of bauxite is gradually improving, and the price is gradually decreasing. Alumina is in a state of mixed production, resumption, and reduction. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, but the downstream processing start - up rate is decreasing [3] - Price Outlook: The price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner after the holiday. It is recommended to moderately short at high prices within the range of 19,500 - 20,300 [3] 3.3 Zinc - Market Review: After filling the downward gap, it returned to a volatile state [3] - Fundamentals: The domestic zinc ore processing fee increase has slowed down significantly. Although there are smelter maintenance plans, the impact on refined zinc production is expected to be limited. The downstream consumption is expected to be flat [3] - Price Outlook: The zinc price is expected to be weakly volatile after the holiday, with a reference operating range of 22,000 - 23,000 [3] 3.4 Lead - Market Review: After filling the downward gap, it weakened [3] - Fundamentals: The profit of secondary lead has been partially repaired but is still in a loss state. The supply of secondary raw materials is tight, but the primary supply remains at a high level. April is the off - season for lead - acid batteries, and the start - up rate has decreased [3] - Price Outlook: The market may continue to maintain a volatile pattern after the holiday, and it is recommended to conduct trading within the range of 16,500 - 17,000 [3] 3.5 Nickel - Market Review: The price was weakly volatile before the holiday. After filling the downward gap, it weakened [3] - Fundamentals: The PNBP policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the domestic trade ore price may be prone to rise. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the demand for nickel - iron is supported by the high production of stainless steel, but the oversupply pattern has expanded [3] - Price Outlook: The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to observe. The reference operating range for the main contract is 120,000 - 127,000 [3] 3.6 Tin - Market Review: After stabilizing, it showed a sideways volatile state [4] - Fundamentals: The supply of tin ore raw materials is tight, but there are strong expectations for mine resumption. The downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support demand. The overall inventory is at a medium level [4] - Price Outlook: The price fluctuation is expected to increase. It is recommended to conduct trading within the range of 240,000 - 270,000 for the SHFE tin 06 contract, and continue to pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [4] 3.7 Industrial Silicon - Market Review: It continued the downward trend and accelerated the decline after breaking through the support level [127] - Fundamentals: The weekly output increased, and the factory and port inventories increased. The electricity price decreased in May, and the cost decreased. Some enterprises in Xinjiang plan to reduce production, while enterprises in the southwest are gradually resuming production, but the low silicon price limits the progress [4] - Price Outlook: The price is expected to be weakly volatile [4] 3.8 Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The downward trend remained unchanged, and it continued to decline at a low level [4] - Fundamentals: The production in April decreased, and the import of lithium salt is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is good, but it is affected by the US tariff policy. The supply pressure is large, and the spot supply is becoming more relaxed [4] - Price Outlook: The price is expected to continue the weakly volatile pattern. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy when the price is high and continue to pay attention to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production arrangement of cathode material factories [4] 3.9 Macro - economic Data - China: In April, the official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.4. The Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.4, the lowest in three months [14][15] - US: In April, the ISM manufacturing PMI shrank to the largest extent in five months, and the first - quarter GDP decreased by 0.3%. However, the non - farm employment increased by 177,000, significantly better than expected, and the unemployment rate remained stable [18][19][20]