原油：空单止盈，短线观望

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no explicit industry investment rating mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests to take profit on short positions in crude oil and stay on the sidelines for the short - term [1]. - With OPEC+ accelerating production increases, there are concerns about an oversupply in the oil market, leading to a bearish outlook on oil prices in the short - term. However, some institutions expect a rebound in Brent crude prices in the next few months [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Information International Crude Oil Prices - WTI June crude oil futures fell $0.95 per barrel, a 1.60% decline, to $58.29 per barrel; Brent July crude oil futures fell $0.84 per barrel, a 1.35% decline, to $61.29 per barrel; SC2506 crude oil futures fell 17.00 yuan per barrel, a 3.48% decline, to 471.10 yuan per barrel [1]. Market News and Events - Iran's foreign minister stated that an agreement with the US could be reached if the goal is to prevent nuclear weapons [2]. - Saudi Arabia set the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil to the US in June at a premium of $3.40 per barrel over the Argus Sour Crude Index [2]. - The EU will announce a roadmap to gradually reduce dependence on Russian energy exports on Tuesday [2]. - As of April 24, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year was 4.44 million liters, with a consumption of 3.2 million liters from January to March. The mandatory palm oil blending ratio for biodiesel in Indonesia this year is 40%, up from 35% last year [2]. - If OPEC+ continues to accelerate production increases, DNB Markets analysts believe Brent crude prices could fall below $50 per barrel by the end of this year. OPEC and its allies may significantly increase supply from July to October if member countries' quota compliance does not improve [2]. - The EU plans to propose a ban on importing Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 [2]. - Despite short - term pressure, UBS Group expects Brent crude prices to rebound to $68 per barrel in the next few months [2]. - After OPEC+ agreed to continue accelerating production increases in June, it may approve another 411,000 - barrel - per - day increase in July [2][4]. - Barclays lowered its price forecasts for Brent crude for this year and next due to OPEC+'s accelerated production increases [2][3][4]. - As of the week ending April 29, the speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil futures increased by 2,716 contracts to 116,599 contracts [2]. - On Monday, oil prices in the Asian market fell by more than $2 due to concerns about more supply entering the market as OPEC+ further accelerates oil production increases. The six - month spread of Brent crude turned into a positive spread of 11 cents per barrel for the first time since December 2023, indicating an expectation of sufficient market supply. ING Bank expects the average price of Brent crude this year to drop from $70 to $65 and anticipates a further surplus in the global oil balance throughout 2025 [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [3]. Analyst's View - A Reuters columnist believes that OPEC+'s reason for increasing supply is not valid. With rising supply and potentially falling demand, the oil price is likely to be bearish in the next few months [4]. - Three members of Goldman Sachs' commodities research team lowered their oil price forecasts based on the assumption of increased OPEC+ supply. Goldman Sachs now expects OPEC+'s final production to increase by 410,000 barrels per day in July, up from the previous forecast of 140,000 barrels per day. It predicts that the average price of Brent crude will be $60 per barrel for the rest of 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026, and the average price of WTI crude will be $56 per barrel for the rest of 2025 and $52 per barrel in 2026 [4].