甲醇日评：面临油价利空冲击-20250506

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market is likely to be affected by the negative impact of falling oil prices due to OPEC+ accelerating production increases during the May Day holiday. The methanol market may fluctuate downward, and there is still a lack of positive factors in the fundamental situation in May. The import volume from Iran may continue to increase. The strategy recommendation is to wait and see in the short term, with a view score of -1 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol futures prices (closing prices): MA01 decreased from 2341 yuan/ton to 2316 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.07%; MA05 decreased from 2355 yuan/ton to 2311 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.87%; MA09 decreased from 2278 yuan/ton to 2251 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.19% [1] - Methanol spot prices (daily average): The price in Taicang increased from 2425 yuan/ton to 2440 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62%; the prices in Shandong, Guangdong, and Shaanxi decreased by 1.01%, 1.84%, and 1.36% respectively; the prices in Sichuan-Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from 84 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [1] 3.2. Cost - Coal spot prices: The prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 3.3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profits: The profits of coal - based methanol in East China remained unchanged at 575.60 yuan/ton; the losses of MTO in East China increased from 842.57 yuan/ton to 885.57 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.10%; the profits of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 350 yuan/ton; the profits of MTO in Northwest China increased from 126.40 yuan/ton to 144 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.92%; the profits of acetic acid decreased from 515.36 yuan/ton to 513.15 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43% [1] - Methanol downstream profits: The profits of MTBE decreased from 205.80 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton, a decline of 39.75%; the losses of formaldehyde remained at - 250 yuan/ton; the profits of another unnamed product remained at 450 yuan/ton [1] 3.4. Important Information - Domestic futures prices: The main methanol contract MA2509 weakened and declined, opening at 2279 yuan/ton, closing at 2251 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 494,490 lots and an open interest of 635,491 lots, showing reduced trading volume and open interest [1] - Foreign information: All methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are operating stably, with an operating rate of around 85%. The loading volume in the port in April increased significantly, with an estimated loading volume of around 600,000 tons, a 103% increase compared to March. The import volume in May will continue to increase. Only the Bandar Abbas port in this country is affected, while the Assalueh and Blk ports are operating normally for loading and discharging [1]