摩根士丹利：人工智能供应链-需求良好，芯片 系统供应情况如何？

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as In-Line [5] Core Insights - Strong AI capital expenditure (capex) guidance from major cloud service providers (CSPs) indicates robust demand, with the top four hyperscalers expected to allocate a total of US$325 billion in capex for calendar year 2025 [2][10] - The production capacity of the GB300 server rack is critical to meet the anticipated demand, with estimates suggesting that only 5,000 to 10,000 units will be available in the first half of 2025, fulfilling only US$15 billion to US$30 billion of AI capex [2][4] - The total addressable market (TAM) for AI servers in 2025 is projected to be around US$160 billion, representing a 50% share of the total capex [2][9] Summary by Sections AI Capex and Demand - Major CSPs like Meta, Microsoft, and Google report that AI customer demand continues to exceed their data center capacity, which is favorable for AI server chip demand [2][10] - Meta has increased its capex to US$64-72 billion, while Microsoft is shifting more of its capex towards server systems, indicating a trend towards short-lived assets like CPU/GPU servers [10][11] Supply Chain and Production - The GB300 server rack's output in the second half of 2025 is deemed critical, with a need for total NVL72 server rack production to reach 30,000 units to fulfill approximately US$100 billion of AI capex [2][4] - TSMC is expected to produce at least 5 million units of Blackwell chips in 2025, which is essential for meeting the demand [2][4] Chip Development and Innovations - There is ongoing activity in 3nm AI ASIC design, with MediaTek and other companies working on new chips to address strong demand, particularly from China [7][24] - Nvidia's new B30 chip is being developed to cater to China's AI inference demand, while the 3nm TPU design for Google is expected to tape out in July 2025 [7][24] Financial Projections - The top four US hyperscalers are projected to generate US$550 billion in operating cash flow in 2025, supporting ongoing capex growth [9][12] - Depreciation as a percentage of total expenses is expected to rise, reflecting increased investment in data centers, with projections of 10-14% in 2025 [12][19] Market Trends - The AI supply chain is experiencing bottlenecks, particularly in Asia, which could impact the timely fulfillment of demand [8][9] - The report highlights a significant year-over-year growth in cloud capex, with a forecast of 40% growth in 2025, up from a prior estimate of 31% [19][20]