安粮期货豆粕日报-20250506

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports 2. Core Views - Soybean and Related Products: Soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term; soybean meal may oscillate weakly; after the holiday, the Dalian Commodity Exchange corn price is expected to follow the foreign market, but domestic factors will dominate later [1] - Copper: The monthly K - line of copper price shows a balance between yin and yang, and attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the moving average system [2] - Lithium Carbonate: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4] - Steel: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5] - Coking Coal and Coke: Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound at low levels, with limited upside space [6] - Iron Ore: The 2505 contract of iron ore may decline with oscillations in the short - term [7] - Crude Oil: The WTI main contract has support at $55 per barrel, and the domestic market may offset the decline during the holiday, with neutral fluctuations [8] - Rubber: Attention should be paid to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber, and the main contract has support at around 14,000 yuan per ton [9] - PVC: The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [10] - Soda Ash: After the holiday, the futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean and Related Products - Market Conditions: As of May 2, the US soybean and soybean oil futures rose. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The mid - term de - stocking cycle of domestic soybean oil may end, and the inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to ease, and the downstream will start restocking [1] - Spot Information: 43% soybean meal prices in Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3300 yuan/ton, 3530 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively; new - corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [1] Copper - Market Conditions: The global market is affected by tariffs, and the overseas capital market is highly volatile. The Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply of copper still has problems, and the price is in a resonance state [2] - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77840 - 78060 yuan, down 85 yuan, with a premium of 200 - 260 yuan [2] Lithium Carbonate - Market Conditions: The cost of lithium carbonate is decreasing as the price of spodumene concentrate drops. Supply is increasing with a slowdown in growth rate, and the resumption of production at salt lakes may impact prices. Demand has improved but lacks upward momentum [3] - Inventory: Weekly inventory has been accumulating. As of April 24, the total inventory was 131,864 tons, with increases in smelter and downstream inventories [4] - Spot Information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 67,900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade (99.2%) is 662,000 yuan/ton [3] Steel - Market Conditions: The fundamentals of steel are improving, with a weakening contango structure and a neutral - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry. The cost of steel is dynamic, and inventories are decreasing [5] - Spot Information: Shanghai rebar price is 3160 yuan, with social and mill inventories of 532.76 million tons and 200.4 million tons respectively [5] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Conditions: Supply is relatively loose, with stable domestic production and high - level Mongolian coal imports. Demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts. Inventories are slightly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [6] - Spot Information: The price of main coking coal and metallurgical coke at different ports is provided, along with port inventories [6] Iron Ore - Market Conditions: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments have decreased, while Brazilian shipments are rising. Port inventories have decreased, and domestic steel mill demand has increased, but procurement is still cautious. Trade - war concerns limit price increases [7] - Spot Information: Iron ore indexes and prices of different types of iron ore are provided [7] Crude Oil - Market Conditions: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects oversupply. The WTI main contract has support at $55 per barrel [8] - Spot Information: Not provided Rubber - Market Conditions: The impact of US tariffs on rubber prices has been mostly priced in. The supply is increasing as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees start to be tapped. Demand may be affected by trade - war factors [8] - Spot Information: Not provided PVC - Market Conditions: The production rate of PVC has increased, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased [10] - Spot Information: The prices of different types of PVC and the price difference are provided [10] Soda Ash - Market Conditions: The production of soda ash is stable, and inventories are decreasing. Demand is average, with a preference for low - price products. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental driving force is weak [11] - Spot Information: The mainstream prices of heavy soda ash in different regions are provided [11]