棕榈油：短期偏弱，下方有支撑豆油：单边有回调风险，品种间偏强豆粕：假期美豆涨跌互现，连粕或偏弱运行

Report Overview - Report Date: May 6, 2025 - Report Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm Oil: Short - term weakness with support at the bottom [2][4] - Soybean Oil: Risk of unilateral correction, relatively strong among varieties [2][4] - Soybean Meal: U.S. soybeans fluctuated during the holiday, Dalian soybean meal may run weakly [2][17] - Soybean: Range - bound [2][18] - Corn: Range - bound with an upward bias [2][20] - Sugar: Range consolidation [2][25] - Cotton: Still lacks upward drivers [2][29] - Eggs: Range adjustment [2][34] - Hogs: Trading volume decreased during the holiday, focus on the post - holiday slaughter rhythm [2][36] - Peanuts: Focus on oil mill purchases [2][40] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil main contract closed at 8,148 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.34% increase. Spot price in Guangdong was 8,750 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton. MPOB monthly report forecast shows that Malaysia's April 2025 palm oil inventory is expected to be 1.79 million tons, up 14.8% month - on - month; production is expected to be 1.62 million tons, up 16.9%; exports are expected to be 1.1 million tons, up 9.7% [5][6]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating short - term weakness [16]. Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Soybean oil main contract closed at 7,832 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.67% increase. Spot price in Guangdong was 8,200 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [5]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, suggesting a risk of unilateral correction [16]. Soybean Meal - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean meal 2509 contract closed at 2,920 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton (- 1.91%). CBOT soybean 07 contract closed at 1046 cents/bu, down 12.25 cents/bu (- 1.16%) [17]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating potential weak operation [19]. Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean 2507 contract closed at 4,188 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.19%) [17]. - Trend Intensity: 0, showing a neutral trend [19]. Corn - Fundamental Data: C2507 contract closed at 2,377 yuan/ton, up 0.72%. C2509 contract closed at 2,392 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. As of April 27, the U.S. corn sowing progress reached 24%, higher than the five - year average of 22% [21][22]. - Trend Intensity: 1, indicating a range - bound with an upward bias [23]. Sugar - Fundamental Data: Raw sugar price was 17.43 cents/lb, up 0.16 cents/lb. Mainstream spot price was 6,190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. CAOC expects China's 24/25 sugar production to be 11 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [25][26]. - Trend Intensity: 0, suggesting range consolidation [27]. Cotton - Fundamental Data: CF2509 contract closed at 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.70%. ICE cotton 07 contract closed at 68.53 cents/lb, up 0.25%. Domestic cotton spot basis was stable, while the cotton yarn market had weak trading [29][30]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a lack of upward drivers [31]. Eggs - Fundamental Data: Egg 2505 contract closed at 3,073 yuan/500 kg, down 1.88%. Egg 2509 contract closed at 3,791 yuan/500 kg, down 0.47% [34]. - Trend Intensity: 0, showing range adjustment [34]. Hogs - Fundamental Data: Henan spot price was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. Sichuan spot price was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The procurement progress of second - fattening in April was more than half, and the high - price chasing sentiment cooled down. The short - term support level of LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [37][39]. - Trend Intensity: 0, suggesting focusing on the post - holiday slaughter rhythm [38]. Peanuts - Fundamental Data: Liaoning 308 common peanuts were priced at 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. PK505 contract closed at 7,776 yuan/ton, down 2.29%. Attention should be paid to oil mill purchases [40]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating to focus on oil mill purchases [42].