Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of "not bad in reality but poor in expectation". With high steel production corresponding to moderate demand and inventory in a seasonal improvement stage, unilateral speculative short - selling is not cost - effective. For steel, wait for new contradictions to accumulate before entering the market, and choose hot - rolled coil with better liquidity in the spot - futures aspect [4][8]. - For coking coal and coke, the second round of price increase is temporarily shelved. With sufficient supply, expected peak of molten iron, and weakening pressure from the trade war in May, it is advisable to short on rallies [5]. - In the ferroalloy market, the weekly output of manganese - silicon decreased slightly during the holiday, while that of silicon - iron remained stable. Silicon - iron has low valuation and large production reduction, so it is recommended to try to go long on dips [6]. - For iron ore, although the price has recovered after a sharp drop during the holiday, due to the expectation of production control, it is not recommended to hold long single - side positions, but positive spreads can be used when molten iron is at a high level [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: On April 30, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3122 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (- 0.45%); HC2601 at 3232 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.28%); I2601 at 679 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan (- 0.66%); J2601 at 1576 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan (- 0.85%); JM2601 at 980 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan (- 1.06%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3096 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan (- 0.42%); HC2510 at 3204 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (- 0.44%); I2509 at 703.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan (- 0.78%); J2509 at 1538 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 0.97%); JM2509 at 930.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan (- 0.59%) [2]. - Spreads and Ratios: On April 30, the cross - month spreads of RB2510 - 2601 was - 26 yuan/ton, HC2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton, I2509 - 2601 was 24.5 yuan/ton, J2509 - 2601 was - 38 yuan/ton, JM2509 - 2601 was - 49.5 yuan/ton. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 108 yuan/ton, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.40, the ratio of coking coal to coke was 1.65, the rebar disk profit was 108.48 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 300.44 yuan/ton [2]. - Basis: On April 30, the basis of HC (main contract) was 36 yuan/ton, RB was 104 yuan/ton, I was 72 yuan/ton, J was 120.66 yuan/ton, JM was 89.5 yuan/ton [2]. Steel - Market Situation: During the May Day holiday, most domestic steel spot markets were closed, and a few areas and varieties tried to increase prices. As of May 5, the price of billets in Tangshan increased by 20 yuan to 2970 yuan/ton, and the price of finished products remained stable. The steel inventory is in a seasonal decline stage, and the export indicators have not shown a significant weakening trend. The current high steel production corresponds to moderate demand, and the market shows a situation of "not bad in reality but poor in expectation" [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot Market: Before the holiday, some steel mills lowered the base price of top - charged coke by 20 yuan, and the second round of price increase was temporarily shelved. The coking coal auction had many unsuccessful bids, and the transaction price mainly decreased. During the holiday, the port customs clearance of Mongolian coal was on holiday, which may lead to further inventory reduction, but considering the sufficient supply of Mongolian coal, the customs clearance is likely to recover after the inventory in the supervision area decreases [5]. - Futures Market: During the holiday, most overseas industrial products fell due to concerns about insufficient demand. Although there are signals of negotiation between China and the US and the possibility of tariff relaxation, the trade war is still ongoing. The demand in the black market in May needs to be verified. The steel supply - demand was good before the holiday, but the price increase was still weak. In the future, the terminal demand is likely to weaken in May, and the supply policy has great uncertainty [5]. Ferroalloy - Production Situation: During the holiday, the weekly output of manganese - silicon decreased slightly, and that of silicon - iron remained stable. The supply - demand of silicon - iron is tight, and the production reduction in the production area is large. Manganese - silicon is still in a surplus state, and it is difficult for some factories to reduce production [6]. - Cost and Price: During the holiday, the cost did not change significantly. Manganese ore prices are under pressure from high supply, chemical coke is stable, and the price of raw coal for semi - coke has a small increase. The alloy price matches the current supply - demand and valuation, and silicon - iron has a low valuation [6]. Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: The total iron ore shipment remained stable, and the Australian shipment decreased significantly this period. The subsequent arrival volume will also remain stable. The steel mill's molten iron output increased significantly this period, reaching 244.35 tons per day (+4.23), and it is expected to be at a high - level shock in the next three weeks. The steel export situation has not weakened [7]. - Valuation and Trading Strategy: The short - term valuation of iron ore is relatively low, but the expectation of production control restricts the market valuation. After a sharp drop during the holiday, the price has basically recovered. It is not recommended to hold long single - side positions, but positive spreads can be used when molten iron is at a high level [7].
黑色金属数据日报-20250506
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-05-06 08:09