长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250506

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to move in a sideways manner. After the holiday, the domestic cotton price is likely to react much weaker than the foreign cotton. It is advisable to stay cautious and adopt a hedging strategy when there is a rebound [1]. - PTA is expected to have a short - term rebound, but due to the decline in international oil prices during the May Day holiday, the PTA price may slide [2]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to move in a sideways consolidation. However, due to the influence of the macro - environment, the price is expected to face downward pressure [2][3]. - Short - fiber is expected to move weakly in a sideways manner. After the holiday, the price is likely to decline [4]. - Sugar is expected to trade in a high - level sideways range. After the holiday, the sugar price will keep trading in a high - level sideways range [5]. - For apples, it is recommended to wait and see for now. After the holiday, the apple price may fall from a high level [5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Key Information - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range. The US economy shrank in the first quarter, with GDP declining by 0.3% annually [8][9]. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety Cotton - On April 30, the CC Index price was 14,183 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The CY Index C32S price was 20,410 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. As of April 30, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts were 12,355 (- 41) sheets [8][9]. - As of April 28, 2025, the overall cotton sowing progress in Xinjiang was about 99.7%, and the emergence rate was 61.7% [9]. - As of April 29, the non - commercial futures plus options net long positions in the ICE cotton futures market increased by 13,260 sheets compared with the previous week [9]. PTA - As of April 28, the PTA spot price was 4,570 yuan/ton. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate reached 80.04%, a significant increase [14]. Ethylene Glycol - The total capacity utilization rate of Chinese ethylene glycol was 61.93%, with the integrated device capacity utilization rate at 67.01% and the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate at 53.17%. The weekly output was 54.97 million tons, a slight increase [10][14]. Short - fiber - As of the 24th, the domestic short - fiber weekly output was 16.14 million tons, with the capacity utilization rate average at 85.36%. The average polymerization cost was 5,112.14 yuan/ton, and the industry cash flow was - 30.14 yuan/ton [11][14]. Sugar - In the first four weeks of April, Brazil exported 128.19 million tons of sugar and molasses, a year - on - year decrease of 26.33%. It is expected that India's sugar export volume may be only 60 - 70 million tons in the 2024/25 crushing season [12][14]. Apple - As of April 24, 2025, the inventory of apple cold storages in the main producing areas was 309.98 million tons, a decrease of 44.58 million tons from the previous week. The prices of apples in Shandong and Shaanxi producing areas are provided [13][15]. Important Data Tracking of Each Variety The report provides various data trend charts for each variety, including cotton price, PTA futures price, ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate, etc. [21][26][30]