Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-05-06 08:08Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in May is expected to be loose, and the inventory of ternary material factories has decreased compared to last week. The price of lithium carbonate futures and related lithium products has generally declined. The production and inventory of various lithium - related products in China are expected to change in May, and the price of lithium products is prone to decline. It is recommended to short on price rebounds, paying attention to the support level around 30,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 73,000 - 75,000 [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - On April 30, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared to the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of the active contract decreased, and the inventory remained unchanged. The price differences between different contracts and the basis also changed [1] - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide decreased compared to the previous day. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1] Company Announcements - On the evening of April 25, Bayi Space announced the termination of the "Annual Production of 3,000 Tons of Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Project", with approximately 450,100 yuan already invested [1] - Menglan Xinda stated on the interactive platform on August 30 that the first - phase project of the Malaysian non - ship project has been put into production, with a capacity ramp - up period of several months. The main production capacity in Malaysia will be for the overseas market, and the annual production capacity of suitable cylindrical lithium batteries is expected to exceed 47 million after completion [2] - Zhenhua New Materials announced the postponement of the formal material production line construction project (Yilong Phase III, originally planned to have a total investment of 6.245 billion yuan) [2] Industry News - The Zhangjiakou Nanshan Automobile Industrial Base in Hebei signed a contract with Sanwei (Shaanxi) Battery Technology Co., Ltd. for the Sanwei Solid - State Special Battery Production Base Project. The project will be implemented in two phases with a total investment of 1 billion yuan, and is expected to add an annual output value of 1 billion yuan after completion [3] - An Australian mining company is working on the Global Lithium project, optimizing project economics through mine planning and lithium recycling process improvement. The EU approved a 50 - million - euro subsidy for the Caorvec lithium project [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes 30,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of imported lithium concentrate. China's lithium carbonate production in May is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be loose [4] - The production of lithium hydroxide in China in May is expected to increase, and the inventory may change. The production of lithium iron phosphate in China in May is expected to increase, and the inventory of lithium iron phosphate factories has decreased compared to last week [4] - The production and import of cobalt sulfate in China may change, and the production of various battery materials such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate in China in May is expected to have different trends [5] Transaction Strategy - Due to the uncertainty in tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and China and the weak domestic lithium demand outlook, lithium product prices are prone to decline. It is recommended to short on price rebounds, paying attention to the support level around 30,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 73,000 - 75,000 [5]