综合晨报-20250506

Group 1: Energy and Petrochemicals - Oil prices declined weakly during the domestic holiday. Brent 07 contract dropped 3.8% compared to the closing on April 30. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue in July. The short - term oil market is expected to be volatile and weak [2]. - Precious metals fluctuated widely during the May Day holiday. The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in May. The long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported, but it's advisable to wait for a pullback before layout [3]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to follow the decline of international oil prices. The 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil spot is at a discount, and the ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil spot shows a strong spread [21]. - Asphalt is expected to follow the decline of international oil prices. However, with improved supply - demand, the BU crack spread is expected to be volatile and strong [22]. - LPG has support in the overseas market due to chemical demand, but the domestic market is under pressure as PDH plants enter maintenance. The price is expected to be volatile [23]. Group 2: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fluctuated during the holiday. LME copper inventories dropped to 197,700 tons, and COMEX copper inventories increased to 146,500 short tons. Hold short positions above 78,000 for the 2507 contract [4]. - Aluminum prices may face resistance in the 20,000 - 20,300 yuan range due to uncertain demand in the off - season [5]. - Alumina production has decreased, but capacity may resume. The price is expected to be volatile, and it's advisable to short on rallies [6]. - Zinc prices are weak. With expected imports and weak downstream consumption in the off - season, it's advisable to short on rallies [7]. - Lead prices are weak due to high inventories. The spot import window may open after the holiday, and the price is expected to range between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Nickel prices are at the end of a rebound. Observe for new short - building opportunities [9]. - Tin prices declined due to weak Korean manufacturing and concerns about demand. Hold short positions against 265,000 [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a downward channel. Hold short positions as supply is elastic and inventories are increasing [11]. - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure. Supply - demand structure is poor with slow production resumption and weak demand in the photovoltaic and organic silicon industries [12]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to follow the downward trend of the photovoltaic industry. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but inventories are rising slightly [13]. Group 3: Ferrous Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are volatile. Rebar demand improved, and inventories decreased. Hot - rolled coil supply - demand stabilized, and inventories continued to decline. Pay attention to demand in the peak season and policy implementation [14]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile. Supply is increasing seasonally, and domestic port inventories are rising. Pay attention to the pressure when iron - water production peaks [15]. - Coke's second price increase was rejected. Inventories remain high, and pay attention to steel exports [16]. - Coking coal prices are expected to be weakly volatile. Production is gradually recovering, but inventories are high, and downstream procurement is for rigid demand [17]. - Silicomanganese prices are under pressure. Inventories are increasing, and it's advisable to short on rallies [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices are weak. Supply is decreasing, but inventories are rising. Short on rallies [19]. Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices may decline after the holiday. Supply is sufficient, and pay attention to export dynamics [24]. - Methanol prices are expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is entering the off - season [25]. - Styrene prices face increasing supply - demand contradictions. Costs are weakening, and production is expected to increase while demand is weak [26]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are volatile and weak. Demand is weak, and inventories increased during the holiday, but supply pressure may ease with more maintenance [27]. - PVC and caustic soda prices: PVC may be low - level volatile due to weak domestic demand. Caustic soda's profitability improved, but downstream demand is weak [28]. - PX and PTA prices are driven by oil prices. Supply is contracting, but polyester industry's centralized production cuts are a potential risk [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices are weak. Supply is temporarily contracting, but short - term imports are high, and the price is affected by oil prices [29]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by raw materials. Pay attention to trade frictions and terminal orders after the holiday [30]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are volatile. The US soybean planting season is important. The domestic supply pattern will shift from tight to loose. Soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to be volatile. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic soybean supply pattern will change [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil: The supply of rapeseed meal may ease in the long - term. Pay attention to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [36]. - Corn prices are volatile. Port inventory pressure decreased, and downstream starch production increased. Pay attention to market divergence [38]. - Hog prices are stable during the holiday. Future supply is expected to increase, and pay attention to the decline in spot prices [39]. - Egg prices are expected to be weak. Supply is sufficient, and demand will be weak in the off - season and during the rainy season [40]. - Cotton prices: US cotton rebounded, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and external demand is under pressure [41]. - Sugar prices are volatile. Brazil's new - season supply is expected to be sufficient, and pay attention to weather in Guangxi [42]. - Apple prices are volatile. Spot sales are good, and inventory is low. Pay attention to new - season production [43]. Group 6: Others - Container shipping index (European line) is expected to be volatile and weak. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract is affected by tariff expectations and geopolitical risks [20]. - Wood prices are weak. Supply is decreasing, and demand is entering the off - season. The price is expected to be weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [44]. - Pulp prices are weak. Inventory is high, and downstream procurement is cautious. The fundamental situation remains weak [45]. - Stock index futures may recover in the short - term following the improvement of global risk appetite. The market style may shift to technology - growth [46]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be in a range - bound pattern. Manufacturing expansion slowed, and risk appetite recovered [47].