玻璃5月报传统淡季来临，盘面继续下跌-20250506

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a continued downward trend for the glass market, maintaining a bearish outlook for the 09 contract [2][3] Core Viewpoints - In April, the glass market showed a downward trend due to factors such as Sino - US trade frictions, insufficient demand during the traditional peak season, and high - level inventory. The supply slightly increased, and the demand from large processing plants improved slightly, but engineering orders were still poor. The price of coal decreased, and the profit of the coal - gasification process improved. The soda ash market had a short - term expectation of reduced production, but the upward rebound space was limited. Looking ahead, the Shahe gas switch plan is a negative event, and the glass market is expected to continue to decline [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review: Weak Operation and Strengthening Spread - Price Trends: As of April 30, the 5mm float glass market prices were 1,250 yuan/ton in North China (-10), 1,180 yuan/ton in Central China (0), and 1,370 yuan/ton in East China (0). The glass 09 contract closed at 1,082 yuan/ton last Friday, down 72 yuan from the previous week [13][14] - Spread Analysis: As of April 30, the spread between soda ash and glass futures was 270 yuan/ton (+51), the basis of the glass 09 contract was 118 yuan/ton (+53), and the 09 - 01 spread was -49 yuan/ton (-10) [15] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Coal Price Reduction and Weak Real Estate - Import and Export: In March, China's float glass imports were 389,800 weight - cases (year - on - year - 11.69%), and exports were 1,597,100 weight - cases (year - on - year + 109.73%) [23] - Profit: The cost and profit of different glass - making processes changed. The natural - gas process had a cost of 1,606 yuan/ton (-1) and a gross profit of -236 yuan/ton (+1); the coal - gasification process had a cost of 1,168 yuan/ton (-4) and a gross profit of 82 yuan/ton (-6); the petroleum - coke process had a cost of 1,141 yuan/ton (-33) and a gross profit of 39 yuan/ton (+33) [29] - Supply: The daily melting volume of glass was 158,705 tons/day (+200) last Friday. There were 225 production lines in operation, with 2 cold - repairs and 2 ignition restarts in April [31] - Inventory: As of April 30, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 64,989,000 weight - cases (-484,000). Inventory changes varied by region, with increases in North China, South China, and Shahe factory warehouses, and decreases in Central China, East China, and Southwest China [39] - Deep - processing: The national average production - sales ratio of float glass was 100.48% (+0.64%), the LOW - E glass开工率 was 50.7% (+0.8%) on May 2, and the glass deep - processing order days were 9.3 days (+1.1) in mid - April [41] - Demand - Automobile: In March, China's automobile production was 3.006 million vehicles (month - on - month + 903,000, year - on - year + 319,000), and sales were 2.915 million vehicles (month - on - month + 786,000, year - on - year + 221,000). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 991,000, with a penetration rate of 51.1% (month - on - month + 1.6%) [52] - Demand - Real Estate: In March, real - estate investment decreased year - on - year. New construction, construction, and sales data were poor. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities from April 21 to April 27 was 1.93 million square meters (month - on - month + 29%, year - on - year - 25%) [57] - Cost - Soda Ash - Price: As of April 30, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were 1,500 yuan/ton in North China (0), 1,450 yuan/ton in East China (-25), 1,400 yuan/ton in Central China (-25), and 1,575 yuan/ton in South China (0). The soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,352 yuan/ton (-21), and the basis in Central China was 48 yuan/ton (+21) [65] - Cost - Soda Ash - Profit: By the end of the month, the ammonia - soda process cost of soda - ash enterprises was 1,521 yuan/ton (-30), with a gross profit of 35 yuan/ton (+17); the co - production process cost was 1,864 yuan/ton (-34), with a gross profit of 258 yuan/ton (+3) [66] - Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 755,100 tons (week - on - week - 50), including 415,500 tons of heavy soda ash (week - on - week - 100) and 339,600 tons of light soda ash (week - on - week + 50). The warehouse receipt quantity was 3,949 (week - on - week - 341). As of April 30, the national factory - level inventory of soda ash was 1.6722 million tons (week - on - week - 20,700) [84] - Cost - Soda Ash - Production and Sales: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 439,400 tons (week - on - week + 57,800), and for light soda ash was 336,000 tons (week - on - week - 19,700). The production - sales ratio of soda ash was 102.69% (week - on - week + 5.11%) [86] 3. Investment Strategy - Strategy: The report recommends a "short 5, long 9" strategy. Considering the current situation of the glass market, including the weak demand during the off - season and the limited upward momentum of the market, this strategy is proposed [88]