信用利差周报：长短端利差的分化-20250506

Report Title - "The Divergence of Long - Short Term Spreads - Credit Spread Weekly Report (5/4)" [1][6] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From April 27th to April 30th, most bond yields declined. For 0.5 - 1Y industrial bonds, commercial bank second - tier capital bonds, securities company subordinated bonds, and securities company perpetual bonds, most yields dropped by over 2bp; for 0.5 - 1Y urban investment bonds and commercial financial bonds, most yields decreased by over 1bp; for 2Y industrial bonds and commercial financial bonds, most yields declined by over 1bp; the 2Y securities company subordinated bond yield rose by over 2bp; and the 3 - 5Y commercial financial bond yield dropped by over 2bp. Regarding credit spreads, the 0.5Y industrial bonds and commercial bank second - tier capital bond credit spreads mostly narrowed by over 5bp; the 1Y commercial bank second - tier capital bond credit spread narrowed by over 3bp; the 2Y securities company subordinated bonds and securities company perpetual bond credit spreads widened by over 3bp; and the 5Y urban investment bonds and industrial bond credit spreads mostly widened by over 2bp [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Yield and Spread Overview Yield and Spread of Each Maturity - Treasury bond yields at 0.5Y, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 5Y were 1.47%, 1.46%, 1.45%, 1.48%, and 1.52% respectively, with weekly changes of - 3.5bp, 0.9bp, - 2.2bp, - 2.5bp, and - 2.2bp. Their historical quantiles were 11.9%, 13.2%, 8.7%, 6.2%, and 3.9% respectively. Similar data for other bond types such as national development bonds, local government bonds, etc., are also presented in detail [14] Credit Spread and Its Changes for Each Maturity - The 0.5Y, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 5Y credit spreads of local government bonds were -, 12.01bp, 13.93bp, 14.34bp, and 14.37bp respectively, with weekly changes of -, 0.1bp, 0.2bp, - 1.5bp, and - 2.8bp. Their historical quantiles were -, 44.9%, 43.7%, 45.1%, and 38.6% respectively. Similar data for other bond types are also provided [16] Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Hermite Algorithm) Urban Investment Bonds by Region - In terms of yields, from April 27th to April 30th, most provincial urban investment bond yields declined. For example, the 5Y Guizhou urban investment bond yield dropped by about 35bp. In terms of credit spreads, the 0.5 - 1Y urban investment bond credit spreads mostly narrowed; the 2Y urban investment bond credit spreads mostly widened; the 3 - 5Y urban investment bond credit spreads showed differentiation, with the 3 - 5Y Guizhou urban investment bond credit spreads narrowing significantly [7] Industrial Bonds by Industry - From April 27th to April 30th, industrial bond yields generally declined. The 0.5 - 1Y industrial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, the 2 - 3Y industrial bond credit spreads showed differentiation, and the 5Y industrial bond credit spreads generally widened [7] Financial Bonds by Subject - From April 27th to April 30th, financial bond yields generally declined, with the 5Y city commercial bank second - tier capital bond yield dropping by about 55bp. The 0.5 - 1Y financial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, and the 2 - 5Y financial bond credit spreads showed differentiation [7] Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Balance Average Algorithm) Urban Investment Bonds by Region - Based on the balance average algorithm, from April 27th to April 30th, the 5Y Yunnan urban investment bond could target a return of over 3.2%, and the 5Y Qinghai urban investment bond could target a return of 3.0% or more. The 5Y Yunnan urban investment bond credit spread was significantly higher than that of medium - and short - term bonds, with high riding returns [8] Real Estate Private Enterprise Bonds - From April 27th to April 30th, the yields of real estate private enterprise bonds at all maturities were higher than those of other bond types, and the 0.5 - 1Y real estate private enterprise bond yields dropped by over 17bp [8] Financial Bonds - From April 27th to April 30th, the financial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, and the 3 - 5Y private securities company subordinated bonds could target a return of 4.7% or more [8]