国泰君安期货所长早读-20250506

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for the crude oil sector, it gives a four - star (★★★★) attention rating [8]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The holiday period saw no unexpected overseas risk events. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose over 3% under the optimistic outlook of tariff reduction, creating a positive atmosphere for the A - share market after the holiday. But the recent gap - filling actions of domestic indices have already priced in the expectation of tariff reduction and increased hedging policies. Currently, tariff benefits are more of a “done deal” rather than new incremental factors. With the market expecting a 50% tariff cut and potential reduction space narrowing, and less urgency for incremental hedging policies, there is limited new upward driving force in the short - term. Further upward movement of the indices after gap - filling will face greater pressure. Future upward movement may require an opening of external interest - rate cut space and new domestic policy increments. The near - term market may be dominated by structural and theme - based investments, with growth - style indices relatively stronger [7]. - For the crude oil market, it is recommended to stop losses on short positions and take a short - term wait - and - see approach. After OPEC+ announced an unexpected and aggressive 6 - 7 month production increase plan, international crude oil prices fell close to previous lows during the May Day holiday. It is believed that oil prices are expected to stabilize after a second bottom - test. Reasons include low global crude oil inventory levels, the inability to rule out potential inventory shortages in the peak season of the third quarter despite OPEC+ production increases, uncertainty in the actual production increase volume, and the potential positive impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Market Outlook - The holiday period had no unexpected overseas risk events. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index's rise created a positive atmosphere for A - shares. Domestic indices' gap - filling actions have already priced in tariff reduction and policy increment expectations. There is limited new upward driving force in the short - term, and future upward movement depends on external interest - rate cuts and new domestic policies. Near - term market is likely to be structural and theme - based [7]. Crude Oil Market - The crude oil sector has a four - star attention rating. Short positions should stop losses and take a short - term wait - and - see approach. After OPEC+ announced a production increase plan, oil prices fell close to previous lows. Oil prices are expected to stabilize after a second bottom - test due to low inventory, potential third - quarter shortages, uncertain production increase volume, and geopolitical factors [8].