全球贸易战，豆粕期价冲高回落

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In April 2025, the price of soybean meal futures rose sharply and then fell. The domestic soybean meal futures price started to decline after a rapid increase at the beginning of the month, and the spot price also began to drop rapidly after reaching a peak around April 25. - The current sowing rate of US soybeans is higher than market expectations, and the current weather conditions are generally favorable for sowing. However, against the background of the expected decline in the sown area of US soybeans, the impact of weather changes on soybean prices will be significantly magnified. - Brazilian soybeans have a bumper harvest, and their huge export demand will occupy the original Chinese market of US soybeans. The Brazilian premium is expected to be relatively firm under trade frictions. The excellent rate of Argentine soybeans has rebounded, and the soybean harvest has accelerated. - The domestic soybean meal supply pressure will be very large in the later period. The average monthly arrival volume from April to June will reach around 11 million tons, the highest in the same period in history. Soybean inventories will accumulate, and the operating rate of oil mills will also improve. The supply pressure of soybean meal will gradually increase. - After the festival, there are still short - term restocking and rigid demand in feed consumption. It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate downward, but uncertainties such as weather in North American soybean producing areas, port clearance efficiency, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian tariffs should be vigilant [9][33][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In April 2025, the weighted price of soybean meal futures fell by 0.89% to close at 2906, and the weighted price of rapeseed meal fell by 6.25% to close at 2488. In the international market, the continuous price of US soybeans rose by 2.95% to close at 1044.00, and the price of US soybean meal rose by 1.57% to close at 297.40 [6][10]. Fundamental Analysis - USDA April 2025 Supply - Demand Report for US Soybeans: The report did not adjust the supply - demand data of US soybeans for the 2024/25 season, but only reduced the seed use by 3 million bushels to 72 million bushels and the ending inventory by 5 million bushels to 375 million bushels [18]. - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Situation: The April supply - demand report predicted that the global soybean output was estimated to be 420.58 million tons, 180,000 tons lower than the March forecast. The import volume was 179.41 million tons, 210,000 tons higher than the March forecast. The crushing volume was 354.824 million tons, 2 million tons higher than the March forecast. The global soybean ending inventory was 122.47 million tons, higher than the March forecast of 121.41 million tons [7][21]. - Soybean Output and Inventory: As of April 27, 2025, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 103,100 tons, a decrease of 53,700 tons compared with the previous period. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory was at a relatively low level in history [25]. - Pig - raising Profit: As of April 30, 2025, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 53.62 yuan per head. Seasonally, it was at the historical average level [26]. Cross - Variety Analysis - Soybean Pressing Profit: As of April 30, 2025, the spot pressing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was 188.5 yuan per ton, and the spot pressing profit of soybeans in Jiangsu was 599.8 yuan per ton. The pressing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was at a relatively high level [27]. - Futures Contract Ratio and Spread: As of April 30, 2025, the ratio of the main futures contracts of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal to Dalian soybean meal was 0.87, and the spread was - 384 yuan per ton. The ratio of the main futures contracts of Dalian soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.68, and seasonally, the ratio was at a relatively high level in history [32][34]. Future Outlook - The price of domestic soybean meal futures rose rapidly at the beginning of April and then fell, and the spot price also declined after reaching a peak. The sowing rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and the weather is favorable for sowing, but the impact of weather on prices will be magnified due to the expected decline in sown area. Brazilian soybeans have a bumper harvest, and Argentina's harvest is accelerating. - The domestic soybean meal supply pressure will increase significantly from April to June. After the festival, there is still short - term restocking and rigid demand in feed consumption. It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate downward, but uncertainties should be vigilant [9][33][36].