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瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250506

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The pattern of strong reality and weak expectation continues. The MA2509 contract is recommended to be traded in the range of 2200 - 2280 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2219 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 69 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 693078 lots, up 57587 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 86589 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 7834, unchanged [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Inner Mongolia is 2130 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the East - Northwest spread is 290 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 201 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; CFR China Main Port is 268 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar; CFR Southeast Asia is 340 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam is 265 euros/ton, up 1 euro; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread is - 72 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.57 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.1 dollar [2] 3.4. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 39.24 tons, up 5.44 tons; in South China ports is 14.5 tons, up 1.98 tons; the import profit is - 15 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly import volume is 47.3 tons, down 8.88 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 249600 tons, down 53100 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 89.97%, up 4.91% [2] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 49.78%, down 2.74%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 9.36%, up 0.75%; the acetic acid operating rate is 82.82%, up 1.47%; the MTBE operating rate is 65.01%, down 2.18%; the olefin operating rate is 82.81%, down 1.09%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 462 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 28.06%, up 0.25%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.41%, up 0.16%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.52%, up 0.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.61%, up 0.11% [2] 3.7. Industry News - As of April 30, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 30.98 tons, down 0.26 tons (0.82%); the pending orders of sample enterprises were 30.27 tons, up 2.83 tons (10.30%); the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 53.74 tons, up 7.42 tons; the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 83.69%, up 0.88% [2] 3.8. Suggestion - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [2]