甲醇周报：基本面边际走弱，甲醇或延续弱势-20250506

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol weakened marginally, and methanol futures showed a weak performance. This week, the fundamentals are expected to continue weakening, and methanol futures may remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6][10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - By the afternoon close on April 30, methanol weighted closed at 2,263 yuan/ton, down 1.82% from the previous week. In the spot market, the trading atmosphere in the inland methanol market weakened, while the sentiment in the port methanol market improved, and the basis within the month strengthened. The price difference between ports and inland areas slightly widened. As of the end of April, the average price in the northern line of Ordos in the northwest was 2,192 yuan/ton, the average price in Taicang, East China was 2,460 yuan/ton, and the average price in Guangdong, South China was 2,497 yuan/ton [13]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, domestic methanol production increased again. The production was 2,008,705 tons, an increase of 109,720 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.97%, a month - on - month increase of 5.77%. Sichuan Daxing had new maintenance, while several enterprises resumed production [14][16]. 2.2 Demand - As of May 1, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 57.86%, up 1.86 percentage points from the previous week, mainly due to a slight increase in the load of some devices [19]. 2.3 Inventory - As of April 30, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 283,400 tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 8.54%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 249,600 tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 17.53%. The inventory of sample enterprises in various regions showed different trends, with most regions experiencing a decline [22]. - As of April 30, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 537,400 tons, an increase of 74,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 16.02%. Ports in various regions showed inventory accumulation [28]. 2.4 Profit - Last week, the overall profit of domestic methanol samples decreased. The average profit of coke oven gas in Hebei was 500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 238.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16.80%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was 320.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 19.00%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was 317.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.48%; the average profit of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest was - 180 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% [31]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - This week, the fundamentals of methanol still lack substantial positive factors. On the supply side, the number of methanol production enterprises resuming production continues to exceed those under maintenance, and the supply pressure gradually increases. On the demand side, as olefins enter the maintenance season, methanol demand may decrease. The arrival volume of methanol this week is sufficient, and port inventory is likely to continue rising, increasing the supply - side pressure due to imports. However, the current downward pressure on methanol is not large, as enterprise inventory continues to decline, and port inventory is still at a low level. From a macro perspective, the US may intend to negotiate with China on the tariff issue, improving macro expectations, but the tariff issue is far from being resolved, and the macro positive factors are limited. Overall, methanol futures may remain weak [10][36][37].