申万期货原油甲醇策略日报-20250506

I. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating II. Core Viewpoints - The price of crude oil futures in Europe and the United States continued to decline due to OPEC and its eight allied countries accelerating production increases, triggering concerns about more supply. But the situation in the Middle East may deteriorate, narrowing the decline in international oil prices at the end of the session. Short - term outlook for oil prices is bearish [3]. - The domestic methanol market is mainly bullish in the short - term. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants increased, while the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventories dropped significantly [3]. III. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Crude Oil - SC near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 490.0, up 10.0 (2.08%) from the day before. The trading volume was 9, and the open interest was 2,456, with a decrease of 3 [2]. - SC next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 471.1, down 12.5 (-2.58%) from the day before. The trading volume was 128,314, and the open interest was 22,870, with a decrease of 3,357 [2]. - WTI near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 58.38, down 0.60 (-1.02%) from the day before. The trading volume was 167,984, and the open interest was 226,780, with an increase of 4,207 [2]. - WTI next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 57.94, down 0.50 (-0.86%) from the day before. The trading volume was 373,281, and the open interest was 587,561, with a decrease of 18,868 [2]. - Brent near - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 60.25, down 1.20 (-1.95%) from the day before. The trading volume was 236,097, and the open interest was 357,456, with an increase of 13,396 [2]. - Brent next - month contract: The previous day's closing price was 59.97, down 1.11 (-1.82%) from the day before [2]. Methanol - 01 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2316, down 25.0 (-1.07%) from the day before. The trading volume was 18,626, and the open interest was 116,830, with an increase of 4,357 [2]. - 05 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2311, down 44.0 (-1.87%) from the day before. The trading volume was 30,174, and the open interest was 7,735, with a decrease of 23,333 [2]. - 09 contract: The previous day's closing price was 2251, down 27.0 (-1.19%) from the day before. The trading volume was 494,490, and the open interest was 635,491, with a decrease of 19,453 [2]. 2. Spot Market Crude Oil - International market: OPEC's basket of crude oil price was 61.80, Brent DTD was 61.47, Russian ESPD was 58.29, Oman was 62.12, Dubai was 62.18, and Cinta was 60.42 [2]. - Domestic market: The price of Daqing crude oil was 59.79, Shengli was 59.10. The Chinese gasoline wholesale price index was 8,046 yuan/ton, and the Chinese diesel wholesale price index was 6,800 yuan/ton. FOB naphtha in Singapore was 62.18, and the ex - factory price of aviation kerosene was 5,445 yuan/ton [2]. Methanol - The spot price in the port was 0 US dollars, in East China was 2492.5 yuan, and in North China was 2395 yuan [2]. 3. Market Analysis and Strategy Crude Oil - OPEC and its eight allied countries will implement a daily production adjustment of 411,000 barrels starting from June 2025 based on the May 2025 production level, equivalent to a three - month increase [3]. - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran, which may lead to the deterioration of the Middle East situation [3]. Methanol - The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 77.38%, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. As of April 24, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 71.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47 percentage points but a year - on - year increase of 2.45 percentage points [3]. - Coastal methanol inventories were 58.1 tons as of April 24, down 10.93 tons (15.83%) from April 17, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.07%. The estimated tradable supply of methanol in coastal areas was around 20.4 tons. It is estimated that the arrival volume of imported methanol ships from April 25 to May 11 will be between 533,700 - 540,000 tons [3].