宁证期货今日早评-20250506

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report provides short - term investment strategies and market outlooks for multiple commodities including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products [1][2][4][5][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] - For most commodities, the market is influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic policies, and international trade situations Summaries by Commodity Metals - Steel (Rebar): The fundamentals show high production and demand, with good inventory reduction. However, due to potential high tariffs and seasonal factors, the demand may weaken. It is recommended to short - sell rebar at high prices [1] - Gold: Although short - term factors are bearish, the long - term trade war situation provides some support. A mid - term high - level oscillatory and slightly bullish approach is appropriate [2] - Iron Ore: The inventory has increased, and the short - term trend is mainly influenced by macro factors and policy expectations. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [5] - Silver: The trend is determined by the US economic situation. With a bearish fundamental outlook, a mid - term wide - range oscillatory approach is advisable [8] Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC+ plans to increase production, but the actual increase is weakened. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - to - long - term due to potential supply surplus [12] - Methanol: With stable coal prices and good profits, the supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Production is increasing, and the price is following competitive oils. With increasing imports, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [6] - Soybean: Domestic prices are high, and due to limited supply and by - product support, it is advisable to buy at low prices [6] - Pig: After the holiday, the supply is increasing while the demand is weakening. Pig prices are expected to decline slightly, and farmers are advised to hedge by selling [5] - Rubber: With increasing raw material supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [13] - PTA: PX and PTA are in concentrated maintenance, but downstream demand is weakening. It is advisable to short - sell PTA at high prices [14] Others - Coking Coal: The supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and maintain a long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal strategy [4] - Treasury Bonds: Fiscal policy is strengthening, and bond supply is increasing. A mid - term wide - range oscillatory approach is appropriate [8] - Soda Ash: The price is stable, and the supply is expected to decrease while the demand is average. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] - Caustic Soda: The device is operating at a high level, and the inventory is decreasing. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]