ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-05-06 02:40Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a decline, underperforming the CSI 300 index, with a drop of 2.19% from April 28 to April 30, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.43%, resulting in a 1.76 percentage point underperformance [3] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.24 million tons, remaining flat week-on-week but down 1.9% year-on-year [3] - The total coal inventory of key monitored enterprises reached 33.07 million tons as of April 29, a decrease of 0.8% week-on-week but an increase of 32.6% year-on-year [3] - The report anticipates a rebound in coal prices by mid-May, driven by seasonal demand and a decrease in supply [7] Summary by Sections Industry Market Performance Review - The coal industry has underperformed, with a year-to-date decline of 14.42%, trailing the CSI 300 index by 10.24 percentage points [27] - The overall market performance of coal stocks was poor, with only 8 out of 37 stocks rising in price [28] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily coal sales volume for key monitored enterprises was 7.24 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [3] - The cumulative coal sales volume for the year was 81.82 million tons, down 4.2% year-on-year [10] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) was 677 CNY/ton, down 0.15% week-on-week [4] - The price of coking coal remained stable at 1400 CNY/ton, while the futures settlement price for coking coal was 927.5 CNY/ton, down 2.93% week-on-week [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [7] - It also recommends attention to coking coal companies like Huaibei Mining and Lu'an Environmental Energy, as well as coking companies with improved year-on-year profits like Jinneng Technology and Meijin Energy [7]