XINHUA CHEMICAL(603867) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-06 10:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with stable demand for fatty amines and sales, while the decline in isopropanol prices has negatively impacted profitability [1][8] - The company reported a total revenue of approximately 2.966 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.2%, but a decline in net profit by 10.2% to 227 million yuan [8][9] - The fatty amine segment is expected to see revenue growth driven by increased demand, while the organic solvent segment is facing challenges due to falling prices [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 3.210 billion yuan in 2025, 3.820 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.277 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 8.2%, 19.0%, and 12.0% [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 295 million yuan, with a growth rate of 30.0% compared to the previous year [7] - The company's gross margin is projected to be around 21.1% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.9% [7] Segment Performance - The fatty amine segment is expected to generate approximately 1.453 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.9% [8] - The organic solvent segment is projected to see a revenue decline to 434 million yuan in 2024, down 11% year-on-year [8] - The fragrance segment is anticipated to achieve a revenue of 790 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 52.2% [8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from new capacity in the Ningxia fragrance segment and ongoing investments in electronic materials [8] - The profitability forecast has been adjusted downward due to the decline in isopropanol margins and slower absorption of new fragrance capacity [8] - The estimated net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be approximately 295 million yuan, 351 million yuan, and 409 million yuan, respectively [8]