瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250506

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The reduction in production coexists with the launch of new production capacity, but the profit repair is limited, and the caustic soda consumption demand is difficult to increase. During the National Day, some downstream enterprises take holidays and stop production, and the liquid caustic soda inventory faces the pressure of accumulation. There is still support from overseas market demand such as Indonesia. For SH2509, pay attention to the support around 2460 below and the pressure around 2550 above [2] - In May, there are concentrated overhauls in the chlor - alkali industry, and the shut - down production capacity has increased, which partially alleviates the industry supply pressure. However, the high - cost equipment of downstream alumina reduces production and new production capacity is put into operation simultaneously, with limited profit repair and difficult improvement in caustic soda consumption demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2498 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19; the futures holding volume is 176,216 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 24,260; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is 159 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 6,628; the futures trading volume is 353,700 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 91,237 [1] - The closing price of the caustic soda contract in January is 2459 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 14; the closing price of the caustic soda contract in May is 2353 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 87 [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [1] - The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 62; the basis of caustic soda is 2 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 43 [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 225 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [1] - The price of steam coal is 679 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 100.5 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; in Jiangsu, it is - 100 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,480 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina is 2850 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [1] 3.6 Industry News - From April 25th to 30th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 83.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% [1] - As of April 30th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 415,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 1.79% [1] - The domestic alumina operating rate continued to decline; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 2.54% month - on - month to 79.71%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing remained stable at 60.06% month - on - month [1]