Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-06 10:12Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - L2509 opened with a gap down and fluctuated weakly, with the disk price dropping to 6,987 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, the weekly PE output increased by 1.35% to 651,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.06% to 83.75%. PE consumption entered the off - season, and the average operating rate of downstream products decreased by 1.32%, with the agricultural film operating rate decreasing by 2.70%. Before the holiday, producers and traders actively reduced inventory. Producer inventory decreased by 21.31% to 41,400 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.97% to 59,980 tons, with little inventory pressure. In May, two sets of equipment of Shandong New Era may be put into production, and industry - wide maintenance will start from the middle and late ten - days. Supply pressure is expected to be high in the front and low in the back. The US tariff policy shows no sign of relief, and the export of downstream products continues to be affected; domestic tariff counter - measures support the import prices of ethane and plastics. OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increase, and international oil prices dropped significantly during the holiday. In the short term, L2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6,987 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6,921 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 7,230 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 6,987 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan. The trading volume was 296,850 lots, an increase of 65,638 lots, and the open interest was 533,039 lots, an increase of 54,365 lots. The spread between the January and May contracts was - 309 yuan, down 58 yuan. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 363,263 lots, an increase of 41,625 lots; the short position was 445,697 lots, an increase of 43,192 lots; the net long position was - 82,434 lots, a decrease of 1,567 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,389.55 yuan/ton, down 31.36 yuan; in East China, it was 7,370.49 yuan/ton, down 42.44 yuan. The basis was 402.55 yuan, an increase of 64.64 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 59.42 US dollars/barrel, down 1.64 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 546.25 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 871 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 791 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 83.75%, down 0.06 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) in packaging film was 47.85%, down 0.96 percentage points; in pipes, it was 31.83%, unchanged; in agricultural film, it was 23.39%, down 2.7 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 21.97%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.51%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.37%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 13.33%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points [2] Industry News - From April 25th to May 1st, China's total polyethylene output was 651,100 tons, an increase of 1.35% from the previous week; from April 18th to 24th, China's polyethylene capacity utilization rate was 83.75%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous period. From April 25th to 30th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 1.32% from the previous period. As of April 29th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 41,400 tons, a decrease of 21.31% from the previous period; as of April 25th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 59,980 tons, a decrease of 0.97% from the previous period [2]