GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-05-06 10:23Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the automotive sector [4] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing intense competition, with Tesla facing pressure on sales and performance due to aggressive pricing from domestic brands and a growing number of new models [1][9] - New energy vehicle (NEV) market is showing strong growth, particularly in China, supported by policy subsidies and an increase in domestic models [1][9] - Emerging players like Xpeng, Li Auto, and Leap Motor are launching multiple new models, leading to significant sales growth and improved profitability [2][30] - The trend towards intelligent driving and robotics is accelerating, with companies investing heavily in these technologies [3][26] Summary by Sections Tesla - Tesla's sales are under pressure, with expected deliveries of 179,000 and 340,000 units in 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.1% and 13% [1][9] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at $97.7 billion, with a slight increase of 1% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 revenue is expected to drop by 9% to $19.3 billion [10][12] - The average selling price (ASP) is forecasted to decrease by 7% and 8% in 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, due to promotional pricing [10][16] - Tesla's gross margin is expected to decline to 17.9% in 2024 and 16.3% in Q1 2025, with net margins also decreasing [17][21] New Entrants - New entrants like Xpeng, Li Auto, and Leap Motor are expected to see significant sales increases, with projected deliveries of 50,100, 29,400, and 19,000 units in 2024, representing growth rates of 33%, 104%, and 34% respectively [2][30] - Xpeng and Leap Motor are launching new models that are performing better than expected, contributing to improved profitability [2][30] - The profitability of new entrants is improving due to economies of scale and cost reductions in the supply chain, with Xpeng and Leap Motor showing significant reductions in losses [2][34] Intelligent Driving and Robotics - The trend towards intelligent driving is accelerating, with Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology being rolled out and expected to achieve full autonomy by 2026 [3][26] - Companies are increasingly investing in robotics, with Tesla planning to produce humanoid robots and other manufacturers also exploring this technology [3][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the new vehicle cycle and emphasizes the potential of companies like Xpeng, Leap Motor, Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Tesla [39]