全球市场观察系列：对等关税vs科技

Core Insights - Both China and the US have signaled a potential easing of tariffs, with China indicating a willingness to negotiate and US Treasury Secretary Yellen expressing optimism about reaching an agreement, alleviating market anxiety [2][3] - Major tech companies like Microsoft and Meta reported strong earnings, with Microsoft exceeding expectations with Q1 revenue of $70.7 billion and net profit of $25.82 billion, while Meta's revenue reached $42.314 billion, up 16% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 35% to $16.644 billion, helping to ease market fears [2][3] - The US job market remains robust, with April non-farm payrolls adding 177,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, and the U3 unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%, while the broader U6 unemployment rate fell to 7.8% [3][4] Market Performance - Developed markets rose by 2.9% and emerging markets by 3.3% during the week, with the S&P 500 index achieving its longest winning streak since 2004, driven by tariff negotiations, strong tech earnings, and a stable job market [5][6] - The Hang Seng Index rebounded, closing above 22,500, primarily due to the easing of external risks related to US-China tariffs and strong performance from US tech stocks [6][7] Economic Indicators - The US economy showed signs of stagnation, with Q1 GDP growth at -0.3%, marking the first negative growth since 2022, primarily due to net exports dragging down performance [3][4] - The April non-farm employment data indicated resilience in the job market, which may raise the threshold for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the short term [4][5] Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the US stock market may continue to experience volatility in the short term, but a return to a focus on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings resilience is expected in the medium to long term [4][5] - The potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains, particularly as inflation continues to decline and unemployment rates may rise, which could improve liquidity conditions supporting the stock market [4][5]