研究所晨会观点精萃-20250506

Report Date - The report is dated May 6, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Global risk appetite has increased due to strong US non - farm employment data, while the Fed's rate - cut expectation has been postponed from June to July. China has released signals of evaluation and relaxation regarding Sino - US economic and trade consultations, which is beneficial for boosting domestic risk appetite and the RMB exchange rate in the short term [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks may rebound in the short term; bonds may fluctuate at a high level; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2] Summary by Category Macro - finance - Overseas: US Q1 GDP was - 0.3% quarter - on - quarter, far below expectations. However, non - farm employment was strong, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI rose from 50.8 in March to 51.6 in April. The Fed's rate - cut expectation was postponed from June to July, and the US dollar and Treasury yields rebounded [2] - Domestic: During the May Day holiday, the Ministry of Commerce responded to Sino - US economic and trade consultations. The US has actively sent signals to China, and China is evaluating. This is beneficial for boosting domestic risk appetite and the RMB exchange rate in the short term [2] - Asset Allocation: Stocks may rebound in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; bonds may fluctuate at a high level, and cautious long positions are recommended; for commodities, black metals may be weak in the short term, non - ferrous metals may rebound, energy and chemicals may fluctuate, and precious metals may be at a high - level oscillation [2] Stock Index - Domestic stocks declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, banking, and power sectors. The signal of Sino - US economic and trade relaxation is beneficial for boosting domestic risk appetite and the RMB exchange rate in the short term. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market had a high - level correction this week, with London gold falling 2.4% to $3240 per ounce. The relaxation of trade tensions and the rise of the US dollar and real Treasury yields suppressed precious metals. Gold still has long - term allocation value, and long - term positions can be built using ratio spread structures if it corrects to the next integer level [3][4] Black Metals - Steel: Before the holiday, steel prices and trading volumes declined. During the holiday, trade tensions showed signs of relaxation, and the macro - environment was favorable. The inventory and consumption data in late April were good, but the demand is at the turning point between peak and off - peak seasons, and supply is at a high level. The steel market may continue to fluctuate in the short term [5] - Iron Ore: Before the holiday, iron ore prices declined, but the Singapore iron ore swap rebounded during the holiday. Iron ore supply is expected to increase in the future, and demand may not be able to support high - level iron production. Short - term range - bound trading is recommended, and short positions can be considered at high levels in the medium term [5] - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: Before the holiday, prices declined slightly. Demand is okay, but supply is decreasing. Short - term range - bound trading is recommended [7] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC has increased production more than expected, and the long - term downward trend is more certain. However, short - term supply may be reduced due to the poor progress of the Iran nuclear talks [8] - Other Chemicals: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, asphalt, PX, PTA, etc., most of them are expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: US economic data is mixed, and the manufacturing PMI has declined. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, but domestic smelting production is high. Demand is about to enter the off - peak season. Short - term range - bound and weak trading is expected [13] - Aluminum: Domestic production is high, and demand is strong. Overseas consumption in Europe is still weak. It is recommended to close long positions in batches as the price rebounds [14] - Tin: The resumption of production in Myanmar is progressing, and imports are expected to remain high in May. Demand is about to enter the off - peak season. Short - term price fluctuations are expected [15] Agricultural Products - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: US wheat weather premiums have increased, and domestic downstream feed enterprises are expected to replenish stocks after the holiday. Bean meal prices may rebound, while rapeseed meal is expected to be pessimistic and generally follow the soybean meal market [16] - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: International prices support oils, but domestic oils face weak fundamentals. After the holiday, oil prices may decline, and the soybean - palm oil price spread will continue to widen [16] - Palm Oil: BMD crude palm oil has fallen for five consecutive days. Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase, and production may increase significantly in the second half of the year [17] - Pigs: The price was stable during the May Day holiday. Supply is stable in May, and short - term selling pressure is not expected to be high [18][19] - Corn: Wheat prices will dominate the grain market after the holiday. Corn inventory at ports is high, and there is a risk of futures - spot price convergence [19]