城投债市场运行2025年一季度回顾与展望:净融创近三年新低,政策收紧倒逼城投“真转型”
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji·2025-05-06 11:12
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, the issuance and net financing scale of urban investment bonds hit a three - year low. The policy tightening forces urban investment companies to make "real transformations". The debt pressure of urban investment companies may be further relieved, and there is still room for compression of credit spreads [4][14]. - With the implementation of the "6 + 4+2" debt - resolution package, the credit risk of urban investment has slightly converged. It is recommended to invest in high - quality enterprises in strong regions and selectively sink the credit quality to seek the spread compression space [6][13]. - In the future, the borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratio of urban investment bonds will remain high, and the level of financing entities may continue to move up. Attention should be paid to issues such as local investment and financing needs, debt repayment pressure, asset idleness, and transformation authenticity [7][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Q1 2025 Review of Urban Investment Bond Market Operation 3.1.1 Five Characteristics of Urban Investment Bond Market Operation - Issuance and net financing scale at a three - year low: The issuance scale was 1.48 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.13%. The net financing was 75.105 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 46.76%. The net financing of low - level and weak - quality entities declined significantly. Some urban investment companies turned to overseas bond issuance, with the new issuance increasing by 9.49% year - on - year [4]. - Overall decline in issuance interest rates but monthly increase within the quarter: The weighted average issuance interest rate was 2.45%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.54 percentage points. The decline of weak - quality entities was less than that of stronger ones [4]. - Long - term issuance and increased reliance on borrowing new to repay old: The weighted average term increased by 0.29 years to 3.77 years. The proportion of medium - term notes continued to rise. The broad and narrow borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratios reached 97.65% and 94.66% respectively [5]. - Trading contraction and spread compression: The trading scale decreased by nearly 20% year - on - year, and the trading spread was further compressed compared with the end of 2024 [5]. - Improvement in net financing in key areas: The net financing in key areas turned positive year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. 17 provinces had a 100% borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratio, and Jilin and Chongqing issued project - construction urban investment bonds [5][39]. 3.1.2 Credit Situation - Convergence of credit risk: No non - standard defaults occurred in Q1. The number of commercial paper overdue times decreased year - on - year. Two companies in Jiangsu and Guangdong had their credit ratings upgraded. The number and scale of abnormal transactions decreased significantly year - on - year, with frequent abnormal transactions in Shandong and Guizhou [6]. 3.1.3 Issuance Forecast - It is expected that the issuance scale from April to December will be about 4.4 trillion yuan. The borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratio will remain high, and the level of financing entities may continue to move up. There may be months with negative net financing, and the total net financing scale is about 0.025 trillion yuan [7]. 3.2 Follow - up Concerns - Local investment and financing needs: Although there are marginal improvements in local investment and financing, the pressure on new financing is still high. It is necessary to optimize financing policies and support the opening of new investment spaces [9]. - Debt repayment pressure: A large amount of debt still needs to be resolved independently. Hidden - debt - related interest and government arrears should be reasonably included in the replacement scope [10]. - Asset idleness: Urban investment companies have a large amount of idle land assets. They should seize the opportunity of special bonds for land acquisition and adopt various ways to revitalize the assets [11]. - Transformation authenticity: The next two years are the critical period for transformation. Attention should be paid to the authenticity of transformation and the risk of the withdrawal of debt - resolution policies after exiting the platform [12]. 3.3 Urban Investment Bond Strategy - It is recommended to invest in high - quality enterprises in strong regions based on fundamentals to obtain coupon income. Selectively sink the credit quality, such as weak urban investment in strong regions and strong urban investment in weak regions, to seek the spread compression space brought by debt - resolution results [13].