ZD Leader(002896) 东北证券·2025-05-06 11:08Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a potential stock price increase of 5% to 15% over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in its core business, particularly in the intelligent transmission sector, with a comprehensive product lineup including harmonic reducers, RV reducers, and planetary reducers. This positions the company well to meet diverse customer needs and enhance integration efficiency [9]. - The humanoid robot business is progressing well, with plans to invest 200 million in a new precision component production line, aiming to capitalize on the expected growth in the humanoid robot market [9]. - Financial forecasts predict the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 0.85 billion, 1.09 billion, and 1.33 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 161.75, 126.41, and 103.30 [9]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported revenue of 1,086 million, with a year-on-year growth of 20.99%. However, a decline of 10.10% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with projected growth rates of 13.01%, 12.88%, and 12.96% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 73 million, with a slight increase of 10.22%. The forecast for 2024 shows a minor decline of 0.82%, but significant growth is expected in the following years [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.48, projected to increase to 0.56 in 2025, 0.72 in 2026, and 0.88 in 2027 [2]. Product Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3.45 billion from deceleration motors, a slight increase of 0.78%, while precision reducers generated 2.43 billion, up by 1.07%. However, the intelligent execution units saw a significant decline in revenue by 23.65% [3]. - The gross margin improved to 29.21%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.24 percentage points, indicating effective cost management despite a slight revenue decline [3]. Market Position - The company is well-positioned in the rapidly growing humanoid robot market, with expectations of reaching one million units by 2027. The current global production capacity for harmonic reducers is insufficient to meet demand, suggesting a strategic advantage for the company as it expands production [9].