从一季度政策环境看债市走向：关税风波强化避险属性，重点领域支持再加码

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, facing a complex internal and external environment, China's central government adheres to the general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, strengthens counter - cyclical macro - policy regulation, and the bond market plays an important role in counter - cyclical adjustment. The bond market focuses on "improving quality and efficiency, serving the real economy", and strengthens direct financing functions through various measures to support key areas and weak links [4]. - The tariff game between China and the US has intensified, increasing the uncertainty of the global economic situation. The risk - aversion attribute of China's bond market has been enhanced, and it is expected to attract more long - term allocation funds. Meanwhile, the bond market has increased support for key areas such as science and technology innovation and green development, and tried to improve the financing environment of private enterprises, but the effect still needs time to show [3][4]. Summary by Directory External Environment - The continuous escalation of the China - US tariff dispute has a great impact on market sentiment. After the tariffs are implemented, global risk assets are under pressure, and funds flow into safe - haven assets. China's bond market has strengthened significantly. The relative attractiveness of US dollar assets has decreased, which may boost foreign capital's demand for RMB bonds [3]. - In the recent tariff conflict, the US has continuously increased tariffs on Chinese goods, which has affected China's import and export and economic fundamentals. The yields of Chinese treasury bonds and credit bonds have generally declined, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield is still at a low level [6][7][8]. - Affected by tariff policies and market risk - aversion sentiment, US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar have all declined. The Fed's subsequent interest - rate policy is uncertain. The narrowing of the yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds may attract more long - term foreign capital to allocate RMB bonds [9]. Key Areas - In the first quarter, the bond market increased its support for science and technology innovation and green development, releasing policy dividends. The support policies for science and technology finance have been upgraded in terms of specification and frequency, with new measures such as the "science and technology board" of the bond market [3][10][11]. - For green finance, policies have been deepened from multiple aspects. The Ministry of Finance issued a green sovereign bond framework and successfully issued 6 billion RMB of green sovereign bonds overseas, which is conducive to diversifying financing channels and promoting international green finance cooperation [15][16]. - In the first quarter, the issuance of innovative bond varieties was hot. The issuance volume of innovative products exceeded 300 billion yuan, of which science and technology innovation bonds accounted for about 80% and green bonds were nearly 60 billion yuan. There is still room for expansion in the science and technology innovation and green bond markets [17]. Weak Links - In the first quarter, the issue of private enterprise development has attracted more attention. The central government has released clear support signals, and bond market regulators have also taken measures to boost market confidence and optimize financing support [19]. - Multiple departments have held symposiums on private enterprises, emphasizing the need to solve the problems of difficult and expensive financing for private enterprises. The bond market has optimized basic mechanisms to increase financing services for private enterprises [20][21]. - Although a series of support measures are conducive to improving the financing environment of private enterprises, due to the time - lag of policy transmission and low market risk preference, the credit bond financing scale of private enterprises in the first quarter was limited, and it still takes time to improve [23]. Basic Systems - In the first quarter, the bond market continued to optimize basic systems. The inter - bank and exchange markets optimized trading and settlement mechanisms, reduced transaction costs, and attracted more medium - and long - term funds [24][25]. - The exchange market standardized debt - restructuring bond replacement business and revised the review guidelines for corporate bond issuance and listing, which is conducive to strengthening credit risk management and improving the transparency of bond issuance review [26].