美国经济：关税短期升成本作用超过降需求效应

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI rose from 50.8 in March to 51.6 in April, exceeding market expectations of 50.2, indicating an acceleration in service sector expansion[2] - The Manufacturing PMI decreased from 49 in March to 48.7 in April, better than the expected 47.9, suggesting a contraction in manufacturing activity[2] Inflation and Costs - The price index for services increased from 60.8 to 65.1, reaching a nearly two-year high, while the manufacturing price index rose from 69.4 to 69.8[2] - Tariffs are expected to raise PCE inflation by up to 0.6 percentage points over the next two quarters, with short-term inflation risks outweighing unemployment risks[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market's expectation for interest rate cuts in 2023 decreased by 3 basis points to 76 basis points following the data release, with the Fed likely to maintain rates in May and June[1] - The Fed may consider rate cuts in July or September, followed by another cut in November or December as demand contraction begins to outweigh cost increases[1]