2024年公募佣金行业复盘：生态骤变，行业回归研究本源

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the non-bank financial industry [6] Core Insights - The public fund commission income is expected to decline significantly due to fee rate reductions and the passive nature of equity public funds, with a forecast of 79 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 28% year-on-year decrease [2][30] - The commission income for the securities industry in 2024 is projected to be 107.8 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of commission rate reductions [1][17] - The increasing proportion of passive equity funds is leading to a decrease in trading turnover rates, which is further contributing to the decline in commission income [2][25] Summary by Sections 1. Development Trends - The public fund commission rate dropped to 0.037% in the second half of 2024, a significant decline of 48.7% year-on-year [21][23] - The growth of equity funds in 2024 is primarily driven by passive stock funds, which increased their share from one-third at the end of 2023 to nearly half by the end of 2024 [2][30] - The trading volume of public funds decreased by 8% in 2024, contrasting with a 21% increase in overall market trading volume [25] 2. Competitive Landscape - The concentration of commission income among securities firms is rebounding in 2024 after a decline from 2020 to 2023, attributed to industry consolidation and new regulations separating commission from sales capabilities [3][33] - The average commission distribution ratio for 12 securities firms fell from 23.5% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2024 due to new regulations [3][37] - The number of licensed analysts in the industry increased by 20% in 2024, reaching a total of 5,563 [2][43] 3. Public Fund Perspective - The top three fund companies contributing to commission income in 2024 were E Fund, Fuguo, and GF Fund, accounting for nearly 70% of the total commission [4] - The scale of fund settlement models reached 1.1 trillion yuan by April 2025, representing 3.4% of all public funds [4] - Fund companies have disclosed their criteria for selecting securities firms, emphasizing the importance of strong research capabilities [4][5] 4. Response Strategies - Securities firms are encouraged to diversify their income sources and enhance the strategic role of their research departments [5] - Non-public institution commission rates are not affected by new regulations, with a 10% year-on-year increase in commission income from non-public institutions for leading firms [5] - The development model of research departments should shift from a commission-for-research model to a more comprehensive research approach [5]