美元债双周报（25年第18周）：美国一季度GDP负增长，但就业市场维持韧性-20250506

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Neutral - Maintain" [4] - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Neutral" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The "rush to import" led to a 0.3% decline in the US GDP in Q1 2025, the first contraction since 2022. However, the trade deficit is expected to narrow in Q2, and imports may boost GDP [1] - The US April non - farm payroll data was robust, with stable unemployment and slowing wage growth. The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in May and may cut rates in July [2] - The volatility of US Treasury bonds has slowed, with flat rates in the past two weeks and a slightly narrowed term spread. The US Treasury bond market is expected to remain volatile [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The yields of 1 - year/2 - year/3 - year/5 - year/10 - year/20 - year/30 - year US Treasury bonds changed by 1/2/0/ - 3/ - 1/ - 1/ - 1bp respectively in the past two weeks. The 10Y and 2Y yields were 4.33% and 3.83% respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y spread narrowed to 50bp [3] 3.2 US Macroeconomy and Liquidity - In Q1 2025, the US real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was - 0.3%, the first contraction since 2022. The main reasons were a sharp increase in imports and a decline in government spending. However, business equipment spending increased by 22.5% [1] - In April, the US non - farm employment increased by 177,000, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the average hourly wage growth slowed [2] - The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged in May and may cut rates in July due to inflation still above the 2% target and the impact of tariff policies on inflation [2] 3.3 Exchange Rates - No specific analysis content about exchange rates is provided in the text, only related chart descriptions are given [53][59][61] 3.4 Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The US dollar bond market is affected by trade negotiations, Fed interest rate policy expectations, and inflation data, and is expected to remain volatile [3] 3.5 Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took one rating action on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, with S&P giving Guangdong Energy Group Natural Gas Co., Ltd. an initial rating of BBB+ [89] 3.6 Rating Actions - S&P gave Guangdong Energy Group Natural Gas Co., Ltd. an initial rating of BBB+ on April 22, 2025 [90]