信用债热点事件系列：中航产融债券后市怎么看

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The default risk of AVIC Industry - Finance bonds is relatively small, and the valuation anomaly may be mainly affected by the risk - aversion demand due to the company's delisting. The company has strong solvency and willingness to repay debts [4][29]. - After the bond resumed trading on April 24, 2025, except for the significant increase in yields on the first day due to investors' concentrated selling for risk - aversion, the yield fluctuations slowed down from April 25 to April 30, indicating that the adjustment may have been in place. It is advisable to pay attention to the valuation repair space after the short - term over - decline [4][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 AVIC Industry - Finance Delisting Event Timeline - On March 27, 2025, due to AVIC Industry - Finance's controlling shareholder planning major issues, the company's stocks and bonds were suspended from trading starting March 28. - On March 28, 2025, AVIC Industry - Finance announced the termination of its stock listing through a shareholders' meeting resolution and offered a cash option of 3.54 yuan per share to dissenting shareholders (not exceeding 4.304 billion shares). - On April 23, 2025, the proposal for bond delisting was not passed, and the company's exchange - traded bonds resumed trading on April 24 [3][5]. 3.2 Company Overview of AVIC Industry - Finance - Equity Structure: As of March 29, 2025, AVIC Industry - Finance had a total share capital of 8.821 billion shares. AVIC held 39.89% of the shares directly and controlled 11.13% indirectly through its subsidiaries. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council was the actual controller [8]. - Main Business: AVIC Industry - Finance is an industrial investment and financial service platform of AVIC, engaging in businesses such as financial leasing, trust, securities, and futures through its subsidiaries [11]. - Financial Status: According to the 2024 annual performance forecast, AVIC Industry - Finance's net profit attributable to the parent company was - 0.48 billion yuan, and the non - recurring profit and loss net profit attributable to the parent company was - 1.89 billion yuan, the first negative in nearly 17 years. The company's operating performance was affected by business transformation and the macro - economic situation [12]. 3.3 Reasons for AVIC Industry - Finance's Delisting - The continuous decline in AVIC Industry - Finance's performance in recent years, especially the significant drag of the trust business on the overall performance, may be the main reason for its delisting. From 2021 to 2023, the company's total operating income decreased by 11.2%, and the trust business income decreased by 55.4% [3][15]. - AVIC Trust, responsible for the trust business, was affected by the real - estate industry adjustment, with its performance shrinking significantly. Some underlying assets of its real - estate - related trust projects defaulted. The company may hope to delist its stocks and convert standard bonds to "non - standard" to reduce information disclosure and avoid negative public opinion, thus gaining more space for risk disposal [3][16][20]. 3.4 Bond Market Performance of AVIC Industry - Finance - Bond Balance: As of April 30, 2025, the balance of AVIC Industry - Finance's domestic bonds was 27.27 billion yuan, and the cumulative overseas debt was 700 million US dollars [21]. - Yield Performance: Since the company announced its voluntary delisting on March 28, 2025, except for "24 AVIC Industry - Finance SCP006", the ChinaBond行权 valuations of other domestic debts have increased by more than 100BP, with "23 Industry - Finance 05" having the largest spread of 386BP [3][22]. - Maturity Distribution: The maturity and put - back amounts in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 were relatively large, at 5 billion yuan and 4.5 billion yuan respectively, and the scale decreased in Q4 of 2025 and later. There is no situation where the company faces significant debt - repayment pressure due to concentrated bond redemptions [2][22]. - Trading Situation: From April 24 to April 30, 2025, except for one transaction of "22 Industry - Finance 03" at a premium (the maximum weighted trading price was 100.14 yuan per bond), the rest were traded at a discount, and bonds with longer remaining terms generally had a higher discount ratio [2][24]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - Solvency: As of September 30, 2024, AVIC Industry - Finance's cash and cash equivalents on a consolidated basis were 51.6 billion yuan, and the balance of readily realizable trading financial assets was 55.9 billion yuan. As of the end of 2023, the company and its subsidiaries had a credit line of 338.1 billion yuan from major loan banks, with 230 billion yuan unused [29]. - Willingness to Repay Debts: AVIC Industry - Finance has the credit endorsement of a central enterprise. After announcing its delisting, the company actively organized on - site communication meetings with bondholders and declared in multiple announcements that it would ensure bond repayment on schedule, and has no credit default record in the public market [29].