瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250506

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall zinc production will increase due to the rise in zinc ore imports, continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees, significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, further repair of smelter profits, increased production enthusiasm, and the recovery of some overhauled and shut - down capacities. The import of refined zinc is expected to decline significantly as the import window closes and import losses widen. On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season is gradually picking up, the downstream purchasing atmosphere at low prices has improved, the domestic inventory has decreased significantly and entered the traditional destocking cycle, and overseas destocking continues. The terminal real estate has marginally improved but still drags on demand. Technically, with an increase in positions and a break below the MA10 support, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,355 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the 06 - 07 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 280 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,607.5 dollars/ton, up 30 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 215,039 lots, up 12,602 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 1,830 lots, down 2,385 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 2,252 tons, down 102 tons; the SHFE inventory is 48,477 tons, down 2,901 tons; the LME inventory is 172,925 tons, down 975 tons; the spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,860 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,710 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3] 现货市场 - The basis of the ZN main contract is 505 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 37.09 dollars/ton, down 0.2 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, up 18,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the social zinc inventory is 71,000 tons, down 1,900 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 18.84%, up 1.06%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 18.84%, up 1.05%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 18.19%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 16.89%, down 0.37% [3] Industry News - In April, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000, with an expected increase of 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. The final value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in April was 49, higher than the expected 48.7 and the initial value of 48.7; the final value of the French manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7, the highest since January 2023; the final value of the German manufacturing PMI in April was 48.4, the highest since August 2022. In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range [3]