瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250506

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy, the supply cost of nickel resources has increased, and the premium of domestic trade ore has been stable. The cost of domestic smelters has steadily increased, and some smelters are facing losses. Meanwhile, the production capacity of nickel - iron in Indonesia has been released rapidly, and the output has rebounded significantly. On the demand side, stainless - steel prices have weakened. With high raw material costs, stainless - steel plants are experiencing profit inversions and there are expectations of production cuts. The spot procurement demand from downstream is weak. Although the demand for new energy vehicles continues to rise, its impact is limited due to the small proportion. Recently, domestic inventories have declined oscillatingly, while overseas inventories have continued to accumulate. Technically, the trading is cautious with reduced positions, and it faces resistance at MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 124,630 yuan/ton, with a change of 910 yuan; the price difference between the May - June contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 180 yuan/ton, with a change of - 160 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,430 dollars/ton, with a change of 200 dollars. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 67,940 hands, with a decrease of 1,455 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is 2,030 hands, with a decrease of 555 hands. The LME nickel inventory is 200,082 tons, with a decrease of 336 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 28,675 tons, with a decrease of 912 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 20,658 tons, with a decrease of 336 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 24,125 tons, with a decrease of 183 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 125,575 yuan/ton, with an increase of 400 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 125,350 yuan/ton, with an increase of 300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 dollars/ton, with no change. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,900 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the NI main contract is 945 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 510 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 193.01 dollars/ton, with an increase of 0.88 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 153.52 million tons, with an increase of 38.91 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 685.43 million tons, with an increase of 1.46 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 111.85 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 17.44 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, with no change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 2.28 million metal tons, with a decrease of 0.05 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 8,559.43 tons, with an increase of 661.27 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0133 billion tons, with an increase of 104.6 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 24.75 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 64.67 million tons, with an increase of 0.79 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - US non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, higher than the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. The final value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in April was 49, higher than the expected 48.7 and the initial value of 48.7. The final value of France's manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7, the highest since January 2023. The final value of Germany's manufacturing PMI in April was 48.4, the highest since August 2022. China's manufacturing PMI in April was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI and comprehensive PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range [3]