Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-05-06 12:58Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the large energy sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the stable performance of hydropower, the negative impact of wind conditions on short-term performance, and the differentiation in thermal power profitability [6][31][37] Hydropower Summary - Hydropower performance is expected to be stable with improved rainfall in 2024, contributing to an increase in electricity generation in Q1 2025. The national rainfall is projected to be 9% above normal, with hydropower utilization hours increasing by 6.9% year-on-year [20][21] - Major hydropower companies are expected to see performance align with expectations, with notable growth in Q1 2025 for companies like Changjiang Power and Huaneng Hydropower [25][26] - The report highlights the importance of local hydropower pricing advantages and the stability of the business model and policy environment as key factors for investment [28][29] Renewable Energy Summary - Wind power operators are facing short-term performance declines due to poor wind conditions, while solar power operators are impacted by falling electricity prices and increased curtailment rates [31][36] - The report suggests focusing on long-term value in wind power operators despite current challenges, as the market is expected to favor those with sustainable development returns [36][37] Thermal Power Summary - The thermal power sector is experiencing improved profitability due to declining coal prices, although there is significant regional differentiation in performance [37] - The report notes that while northern thermal power operators are seeing better performance, regions like Guangdong are facing challenges due to market price declines [8][37] Investment Recommendations - The report provides three stock selection strategies: focusing on state-owned enterprises undergoing asset integration, selecting resilient hydropower assets, and identifying undervalued wind power operators [9][11] - Key recommended stocks include: - Hydropower: Guotou Power, Changjiang Power, Chuan Investment Energy - Wind Power: Longyuan Power, Xintian Green Energy, Datang Renewable - Thermal Power: Wan Energy, Shanghai Electric, Huaneng International [9]