汇率升值：节后悬念几何？

Exchange Rate Dynamics - The offshore RMB briefly surpassed 7.20, while the Hong Kong dollar approached the strong-side convertibility guarantee at 7.75, prompting concerns about potential currency crises[3] - The Taiwanese dollar experienced a notable increase of over 9% in just two days, a rare occurrence in the currency market[3] - The immediate catalyst for these movements was positive signals from US-China tariff negotiations, with the Chinese Ministry of Commerce indicating an evaluation of talks[3] Central Bank Perspectives - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) appears to maintain a psychological price level for the RMB, with key levels around 7.1 and 7.0 being closely monitored[4] - The current RMB exchange rate is primarily anchored to the USD, with no significant intervention from the PBOC observed at this time[4] - The PBOC is expected to control the appreciation of the RMB post-holiday, seeking a new equilibrium rather than a drastic shift[4] Long-term Currency Trends - The collective movements of Asian currencies may signal a structural change in exchange rate paradigms, indicating ongoing pressure on the USD[5] - The Hong Kong dollar represents a USD-anchored model, raising concerns about its ability to maintain the weak-side guarantee amidst potential USD system shifts[5] - The Taiwanese dollar's recent appreciation reflects a complex interplay of currency undervaluation and deep financial ties to the US, complicating its future trajectory[7] Risk Factors - A potential hardline stance from the US in trade negotiations could lead to further depreciation of the USD, exacerbating the appreciation of Asian currencies and impacting economic stability[8] - If the US imposes terms that force non-USD currency appreciation, it could destabilize the USD system and lead to global market turmoil[8]