原油：继续下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the crude oil industry as "Continue to decline" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of crude oil is high due to the accelerated production increase of OPEC+ and the high - level US crude oil production, while the demand side is facing problems such as the decline of consumer confidence and the downward adjustment of demand growth expectations by major institutions. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to partially take profit on previous short positions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - OPEC+ started to gradually relax the production - cut plan in April and increased the daily crude oil supply in May to 411,000 barrels. There are doubts about whether some countries can implement compensatory production cuts. OPEC+ announced that 8 participating countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and may further accelerate production increase in July. If the quota compliance does not improve, OPEC+ plans to gradually cancel the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by October. The US crude oil production is still near the historical high, and other non - OPEC+ countries are also releasing production capacity [1] - The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the negotiation between the US and the EU on tariffs is still far from reaching an agreement. The US consumer confidence index in April fell to the lowest level since the COVID - 19 pandemic. Major crude oil institutions have lowered the global crude oil demand growth expectations. May is the off - season for global crude oil consumption. It is recommended to partially take profit on previous short positions as the crude oil price has fallen near the previous low and the US has imposed new sanctions on entities engaged in Iranian oil trade [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2506 fell 3.69% to 458.9 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 455.0 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 460.5 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 767 to 23,637 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 400,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day, and in 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day. It also lowered the US crude oil production in 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day to 13.51 million barrels per day. OPEC lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 150,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and in 2026 by 150,000 barrels per day to 1.28 million barrels per day. IEA lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 730,000 barrels per day [3] - As of the week ending April 25, US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.696 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.003 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 937,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 682,000 barrels. The overall oil product inventories continued to decrease [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - OPEC's crude oil production in February was revised down by 6,000 barrels per day to 26.854 million barrels per day, and in March 2025, it decreased by 78,000 barrels per day to 26.776 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production cuts in Iraq and Nigeria. The US crude oil production in the week ending April 25 increased by 500 barrels per day to 13.465 million barrels per day, down 166,000 barrels per day from the historical high in early December last year [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 19.658 million barrels per day, 1.04% lower than the same period last year. The weekly demand for gasoline decreased by 3.36% to 9.098 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand increased by 3.16% compared with the same period last year. The weekly demand for diesel decreased by 9.04% to 3.55 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand increased by 10.34% compared with the same period last year. The decrease in both gasoline and diesel demand led to an 8.24% decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4]