A股流动性与风格跟踪月报：融资资金有望回流，小盘成长风格回归-20250506

Market Style Outlook - The seasonal effects on market style are weakening as the seasonal impacts from the Spring Festival, spring offensive, and earnings disclosure period have ended, indicating a potential shift towards small-cap growth style in A-shares [3][14] - The net profit growth of non-financial petrochemical companies listed in A-shares turned positive in Q1 2025, which historically favors the performance of small-cap growth stocks in the short term [19][21] - The probability of easing US-China trade tensions is increasing, with both sides currently in a stalemate regarding tariffs, suggesting that the most pessimistic phase of trade friction has passed [26][29] - External liquidity conditions are becoming more favorable, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates in June, which could lead to a gradual return of financing funds to the market [4][33] Liquidity and Fund Supply-Demand - The market's risk appetite is expected to improve in May, with financing funds likely to flow back into the market as the risk of large-scale intervention by the central government decreases [5][44] - In April, the supply of new equity funds remained stable, while the demand side saw a significant reduction in net shareholding by major shareholders, indicating a steady decline in funding demand [5][44] - The recent performance of ETFs has shown a net subscription trend, contributing to the main incremental funds in the market [5][44] Market Sentiment and Fund Preferences - In April, the overall equity risk premium increased, indicating a decline in market risk appetite [6] - Trading activity in major broad-based indices decreased, while small-cap growth valuations or trading concentration fell to historically low levels [6] - The trading heat in the consumer sector has notably increased, driven by the need to boost domestic demand amid external pressures from tariffs [6]