金证股份（600446）：新一代核心交易系统落地，大力布局大模型及应用

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][13] Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 4.693 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -202 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 154.8% [7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 521 million yuan, down 52% year-on-year, and a net profit of -95 million yuan, indicating a 20% decline [7] - The new generation core trading system has been successfully implemented, with multiple product lines achieving breakthroughs, including the FS2.5 comprehensive service platform for securities business [7][9] - The company is actively promoting the application of large models and AI, having established an AI company and developed the K-CODE large model, which has been internally deployed [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 4.635 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 259 million yuan, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [6][12] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 27.6% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 6.6% [6] - The revenue forecast for 2026 and 2027 is adjusted to 4.664 billion yuan and 4.762 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 337 million yuan and 382 million yuan [12][13] Revenue Breakdown by Sector - In 2024, the financial sector generated 2.308 billion yuan, a decrease of 6%, with the securities brokerage software business declining by 32.57% [8] - Non-financial sector revenue was 2.377 billion yuan, down 36.81%, with the digital economy business experiencing a 40.2% decline [8] Market Comparison - The company's stock closed at 15.28 yuan, with a market capitalization of 14.459 billion yuan, and a price-to-book ratio of 4.1 [2] - The stock has seen a one-year high of 20.99 yuan and a low of 8.85 yuan [2]