OPEC+加速增产，过剩压力驱动原油重心回落

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Crude oil's three major medium - term drivers (supply - demand, macro, and geopolitics) remain bearish, with no sign of reversal. OPEC+ accelerating production increases exacerbates the supply - surplus expectation and increases the medium - and long - term downward pressure on crude oil. Geopolitical factors related to Iran may be a potential short - term variable. For trading strategies, pre - holiday short positions can lower the stop - profit to the high of the day, and after stop - profit, wait for a rebound to go short instead of chasing the short [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Sector - Crude oil has increased positions and retraced to the previous low. Most energy and chemical products have followed the trend in the past two days. Urea and caustic soda, which have relatively independent trends today, have a short - term bullish structure, while rubber is still seen as a rebound [3]. Crude Oil - Weekly Fundamental View: OPEC+ accelerating production increases exacerbates the supply - surplus pressure, which becomes the main medium - term downward driver. Pay attention to whether there are changes in Iranian geopolitical factors in the short term [5]. - Daily Technical Analysis: Crude oil has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and reached a new low today, continuing the downward path, with the upper pressure reference at the 480 level. Pre - holiday remaining short positions can still be held, and the stop - profit can be lowered to the high of the day [5]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Styrene - Weekly Fundamental View: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - Daily Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It decreased positions and declined today, continuing the downward path on the hourly cycle. The pressure reference is the high on April 29. Pre - holiday short positions can lower the stop - profit to the high on April 29 [9]. PX - Weekly Fundamental View: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - Daily Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It decreased positions and declined with crude oil today. There is no signal on the hourly level, and it turned bearish first on the 15 - minute level. The 15 - minute pressure reference is the high on April 30. The strategy is to go short when it fails to break through the pressure on the hourly cycle [10]. PTA - Weekly Fundamental View: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - Daily Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Technically, it increased positions and declined today, breaking below the support of the low on the night of April 25. The hourly cycle turned bearish again. The new pressure level to focus on is the high on April 30. The strategy is to go short when it fails to break through the pressure [13]. PP - Weekly Fundamental View: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - Daily Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and declined today, continuing the short - term downward path. Pre - holiday remaining short positions can still be held, and the stop - profit can be lowered to the high on April 30 [17]. Urea - Weekly Fundamental View: The pre - holiday rumor of export liberalization pushed the futures price to reverse in the short term, but it has not been confirmed. The peak agricultural demand season is over, and there is a possibility of export relaxation, but port inventory verification is still needed. - Daily Technical Analysis: It has a short - term upward structure on the hourly level. Technically, it increased positions and rose today. After the short - term structure reversed before the holiday, the new short - term support reference is the low on April 30. The strategy is to consider going long when it does not break through the support [21]. Methanol - Weekly Fundamental View: The explosion in the container area of Abbas Port in Iran before the holiday had limited impact. With the resumption of Iranian plant operations, the shipping speed of Middle - East methanol has accelerated, and the import pressure will gradually become prominent. - Daily Technical Analysis: It has a downward structure on the hourly level. Technically, it increased positions and reached a new low today, continuing the downward path on the hourly cycle. The pressure level still refers to the high on April 28. The strategy is to look for a reversal pattern when it fails to break through the pressure level on the hourly cycle and go short [24]. Rubber - Weekly Fundamental View: The high tire inventory has led to a decline in the tire operating rate. The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires has dropped by 6.2%. However, the futures price has already fully reflected this. The current divergence lies in the verification of the output after the Southeast Asian rubber tapping season. The macro - demand expectation is bearish and difficult to improve. Pay attention to whether there are any abnormalities in the Southeast Asian weather in the short term. - Daily Technical Analysis: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term oscillating structure on the hourly level. Technically, it decreased positions and rebounded today, but in the long run, it is still in an oscillating pattern. The upper pressure still refers to the high on April 8. Recently, it has been doing an oversold repair through narrow - range oscillation by trading time for space. There is no trading opportunity for now [25]. Caustic Soda - Daily Technical Analysis: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It broke through the short - term pressure level of the high on April 25 today, and the short - term structure has reversed. The pre - holiday short positions should stop the loss [29]. Ethylene Glycol - Daily Technical Analysis: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and declined today, and the short - term pressure and stop - profit level are lowered to the high on April 30 [32]. Plastic - Weekly Fundamental View: It has recently followed the cost - end crude oil fluctuations. - Daily Technical Analysis: It has a medium - term downward structure on the daily level and a short - term downward structure on the hourly level. It increased positions and declined today, continuing the downward path. The pressure level is lowered to the high on April 30. Short positions can be held, and the stop - profit refers to the high on April 2 [33].