Berun Chemical(SZ:000683) Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-05-07 01:46Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a volatile and weak manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The supply of soda ash increases as maintenance resumes and the operating rate rebounds, while the terminal demand is average. The factory inventory of soda ash declines but remains at a historical high. The basis indicates futures premium over spot, the price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Overall, it is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term [2]. Influence Factors Summary - Likely Factors: The increase in the production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass boosts the demand for soda ash [3]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historical high. The cold - repair of downstream float glass for heavy soda is at a high level, and the daily melting volume continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and the inventory, although continuously declining, is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures decreased by 1.63% to 1330 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda in Shahe decreased by 0.76% to 1310 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased by 37.50% to - 20 yuan [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda in Hebei Shahe is 1310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of the combined - alkali method for heavy soda in East China is 175.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method for heavy soda in North China is - 62.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 89.44% and is stabilizing and rebounding. The weekly output is 75.71 tons, with heavy soda ash at 41.55 tons, and the output is falling from a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in the new production capacity of soda ash. In 2023, the new capacity was 640 tons, in 2024 it was 180 tons, and the planned new capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with 60 tons actually put into production [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 102.69% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.78 tons, and the operating rate of 75.85% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass is stabilizing, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 167.22 tons, including 85.71 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [33]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates of various indicators [34].