对二甲苯：月差正套，加工费扩张PTA：多PTA空SC

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers trading strategies and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. The market trends are influenced by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [4][15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - PX: In the short - term, it's a volatile market with a positive spread between different contract months. Long PX and short SC, or long PX and short EB are recommended strategies. Cost - wise, geopolitical conflicts lead to a rebound in crude oil, supporting PX valuation. The recovery of polyester terminal demand drives up the valuation of the aromatic polyester chain [15]. - PTA: A positive spread between different contract months is recommended, along with long PTA and short SC. In terms of supply - demand, PTA supply decreases while demand increases, maintaining a de - stocking pattern. However, high processing fees lead to postponed maintenance of some devices, so a short - on - rallies strategy is suggested [15]. - MEG: It has a weak unilateral trend. Long PTA and short MEG is recommended. The supply of ethylene glycol will continue to increase, with easier restarts of coal - based and oil - based devices and sufficient imported sources, making it difficult to reduce port inventories [16]. 3.2 Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move sideways. Its futures prices, trading volumes, and positions have changed, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased. The semi - steel tire industry faces production and sales pressure, while the full - steel tire industry maintains flexible production scheduling [17][18][20]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - With the rebound of crude oil, the synthetic rubber market has support for sideways movement. The cost of butadiene is stable, and the demand for butadiene from the synthetic rubber end increases. Although the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are neutral, the low valuation provides support [21][23]. 3.4 Asphalt - The asphalt market is expected to be strong and volatile due to the rebound of oil prices. The trading volume and positions of asphalt futures have changed, and the basis has increased. The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt enterprises has decreased, factory inventories have decreased slightly, and social inventories have increased slightly [24][33]. 3.5 LLDPE - The LLDPE market has a weak trend. The market price continues to fall, affected by factors such as the trade war, new production capacity, low maintenance volume, and weak demand [34][35]. 3.6 PP - The PP price has a slight decline, but the low - price transactions are good. The domestic PP market has a slight decline, with weak downstream demand and general trading sentiment [39][40]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term but will face pressure later. After the May Day holiday, the price has rebounded, but in the second quarter, it is in the off - season of demand. The supply may be affected by the profit situation of chlorine - consuming downstream industries [42][44]. 3.8 Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move sideways. The spot price of pulp has declined, the futures price has weakened, and the downstream demand is weak [46][48]. 3.9 Methanol - Methanol is under pressure and volatile. The spot price has declined, the port inventory has increased significantly, and in the medium - term, it is in a weak pattern of high production, high imports, high profits, and gradual inventory accumulation [50][53]. 3.10 Urea - The support at the lower level of urea has increased. The futures price has risen, and the production enterprises' inventory is expected to decline. The demand for top - dressing in Northeast China and summer fertilizers in Central China is being released, and the speculative behavior of traders has increased [55][57]. 3.11 Styrene - Styrene is expected to be weak and volatile. During the May Day holiday, crude oil and pure benzene prices have fallen. The supply of pure benzene increases while demand decreases, and the downstream negative feedback will gradually be transmitted to the styrene link [59][60]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The domestic soda ash market is stable and volatile, with some enterprises reducing production, and the downstream demand is tepid [62][63]. 3.13 LPG - For LPG, the cost support has strengthened, but the supply - demand relationship has weakened month - on - month. The futures price has changed, and the spreads have decreased. The operating rates of related industries such as PDH have declined [65][72]. 3.14 PVC - PVC is expected to be weak and volatile. After the holiday, the domestic PVC spot market is in a stalemate, with high supply, increased inventory, and weak expected demand [75][77]. 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has a weak opening during the day and is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has significantly corrected following crude oil, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market has temporarily stabilized [80]. 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is in a low - level sideways movement, and a light - position reverse spread strategy between October and December contracts is recommended. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in relevant indices have changed, and the real - time freight rates of different carriers also vary [82].