对二甲苯：月差正套，加工费扩张

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Short - term sideways market, month - to - month positive spread arbitrage. Long PX and short SC, long PX and short EB. The geopolitical conflict drives the rebound of crude oil, supporting PX valuation. The recovery of polyester terminal demand boosts the valuation of the aromatic polyester chain [10]. - PTA: Month - to - month positive spread arbitrage, long PTA and short SC. PTA supply decreases while demand increases, maintaining a de - stocking pattern. It is recommended to maintain the 6 - 9 positive spread arbitrage. Due to high processing fees, some device overhauls are postponed, so a short - on - rallies strategy is advisable [10]. - MEG: Unilateral trend is weak, long PTA and short MEG. Do not chase high on month spreads. Ethylene glycol supply will continue to increase, with difficulties in reducing port inventories [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Price and Change: On May 6, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had daily changes of - 1.3%, - 1.6%, - 0.6%, - 0.4%, and - 1.9% respectively compared to the previous day [2]. - Month Spread: On May 6, 2025, PX (9 - 1), PTA(6 - 9), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB09 had daily changes of - 6, - 10, - 1, 12, and 24 respectively [2]. - Inter - variety Spread: On May 6, 2025, PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA09 - PF09, PF07 processing fees, and PTA09 - LU09 had daily changes of - 19, - 47, 8, 9, and - 44 respectively [2]. - Basis and Spread: On May 6, 2025, PX basis, PTA basis, MEG basis, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spread had daily changes of 170, - 8, 4, 46, and 2 respectively [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: On May 6, 2025, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts had daily changes of no change, - 3, - 80, 247, and no change respectively [2]. 2. Market Overview - Crude Oil: Israel plans to expand military operations in Gaza, and the geopolitical situation remains unstable. Iran is committed to diplomatic dialogue with the US, but the fourth - round nuclear negotiation is postponed [4]. - PX: On May 6, PX price rose, with two June Asian spot transactions at 745 and 746 respectively. A 210,000 - ton PX device in Japan stopped unexpectedly, and a 190,000 - ton device is under maintenance. A 2.5 - million - ton PX device in East China restarted. South Korea exported about 439,000 tons of PX in April, with 390,000 tons to China and 49,000 tons to Taiwan, China [4]. - PTA: A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China stopped for planned maintenance and is expected to restart by the end of the month. A northwest PTA supplier's April settlement price was 4824.77 yuan/ton, and the May advance payment price is 4800 yuan/ton [8]. - MEG: From May 6 - 11, the planned arrivals at major ports are about 59,000 tons. A 400,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol device in Guangdong stopped for maintenance on the 6th, expected to last about 20 days. On the 6th, the MEG inventory at East China's major ports was about 790,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons [8][9]. - Polyester: On May 6, the sales of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 77%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of less than 40% in the afternoon [9][10]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 0 [11].