煤焦早报：多因素提振情绪，煤焦有望超跌反弹-20250507

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple factors boost market sentiment, and coal and coke are expected to rebound from oversold levels. After the holiday, with the release of positive signals in tariff negotiations, risk appetite is expected to recover, and the decline caused by risk - aversion before the holiday is likely to be compensated [4] - There are many significant events in the market recently, mostly positive news such as Sino - US negotiations, crude steel reduction, and a package of financial policies. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in J09 in the short term [5] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot prices are weakly stable, while futures prices are declining. The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 1,040 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port is reported at 1,380 yuan/ton (unchanged). The September contract is reported at 911.5 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. The basis is 138.5 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan, and the September - January spread is - 48 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [1] Supply and Demand - Supply remains flat, while demand continues to rise. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.97%, basically unchanged. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.43%, up 0.16% [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory accumulates, while downstream inventory decreases. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 358.52 million tons, up 3.92 million tons, and the raw coal inventory is 558.03 million tons, up 27.58 million tons. The refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 193.89 million tons, up 12.21 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 784.79 million tons, up 2.31 million tons, and the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 810.28 million tons, down 9.55 million tons. The port inventory is 311.78 million tons, down 13.01 million tons [2] Coke Market Conditions - Spot prices are temporarily stable, while futures prices are declining. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1,440 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the second round of price increase has encountered resistance and been postponed. The September contract is reported at 1,502 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The basis is 48.22 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan, and the September - January spread is - 48.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan [3] Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand are increasing, and demand is rising beyond expectations. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.43%, continuing to recover. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 92%, up 0.4%, and the daily average pig iron output is 245.42 million tons, up 1.07 million tons [3] Inventory - Mid - and upstream inventory decreases, while downstream inventory increases. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 67.06 million tons, down 1.76 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 675.22 million tons, up 8.87 million tons. The port inventory is 238.12 million tons, down 5.46 million tons [3] Strategy Recommendations - Pay attention to whether there are any unexpected statements regarding supporting the financing of the real estate industry during the press conference of multiple department heads on financial policies at 9:00 today. If the market shows a strong upward trend during the conference, it may be an important turning point for market sentiment recently [4] - In the short term, continue holding long positions in J09. However, pay attention to the sustainability of the short - term recovery in apparent demand in May, which is a traditional off - season. Under the expectation of the crude steel reduction policy this year, the subsequent performance of steel products is expected to strengthen, which may drive the repair of industrial chain profits [5]